Three things happened last week that may be moving Western Europe and the U.S./NATO closer to war with Russia, and none of them took place at a meeting in Mar-a-Lago.
First, there may or may not have been a drone attack on or at least near one of Putin’s residences. The Russians played up the drone attack so much that many immediately assumed it was a false-flag attack, one that Russia could use to justify a stepped-up response or to target Ukrainian president Zelensky.
Second, Trump made a post on Truth Social blaming Putin for prolonging the war and saying Putin is an impediment to peace. This represents a new level of criticism from Trump, showing that he must be annoyed with the Russian leader. It also implies that the chances for peace are deteriorating.
Third, on January 29, the State Department updated its travel advisory, bluntly warning Americans, “Do not travel to Russia for any reason.” This type of warning confirms relations between the two nations are growing strained. It warns Americans could be harassed, detained, or sent to prison. It is a way of saying we’re going to be fighting Russia without saying we are going to be fighting Russia.
And the week started on such a positive note when Zelensky said he agreed with 90 percent of Trump’s current peace plan. But it takes two to parley, and it appears Putin is 100 percent posturing and delaying while he keeps trying to take territory.
It’s All About the Real Estate
Territory is Putin’s key objective. in Late November, the Kremlin released its new State National Strategy, which went into effect this month. It formalizes the “reunification of historical territories” and categorizes the occupied regions of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson as permanent parts of Russia. Putin considers that non-negotiable. It also signals Russia’s intent to continue to take Ukrainian territory via the ground war.
The “10 percent” of Trump’s peace plan that Zelensky doesn’t agree with includes giving up land Russia hasn’t (yet) seized in return for peace.
And so we have the crux of the matter. Russia will not return land it has seized and wants more. Ukraine wants its land back and will fight to keep from ceding more. The only chance for peace seems to be when one side loses.
Expect the War in Ukraine to Escalate
The obvious question is what comes next? Best guess is an escalation rather than more of the same. But it will be a slow escalation, one toe over the line at a time. Unless Russia does something unexpected like attack the Baltics, it is unlikely that there will be soldiers from other European countries actively fighting in Ukraine in 2026 unless they are mercenaries. Nonetheless, it appears the war will expand in scope rather than see a ceasefire, at least until Russia is out of money or Ukraine is out of soldiers.
Ukraine has already upped its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, including oil refineries, gas processing plants, port facilities for loading tankers, and tankers that are part of the shadow fleet. Earlier this week, Ukrainian drones hit the Moscow electrical grid, taking out a substation and causing 100,000 Russians to lose power, making it Russia’s largest blackout of the war. Russia is responding, hitting Ukraine’s power grid to make things difficult for Ukrainian citizens during the winter cold.
Attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, command centers, airfields and other targets deep in Russia—which often require U.S. or European targeting data—will likely increase in 2026. Besides frustrating Russia and making Putin look bad, these attacks hurt Russia’s economy, which is projected to run a 3.8 trillion ruble deficit this year, with some projecting twice that. Not only do the attacks Russia’s oil income and occasionally take out an irreplaceable nuclear-capable bomber, the attacks force the country and its industry to spend money rebuilding infrastructure rather than weapons.
A Proxy War with Only One Proxy
During the Cold War, the U.S. and Russia fought multiple proxy wars. This one is a little different as Ukraine is the West’s proxy, but Russians are fighting and dying. When it invaded Ukraine, thinking it would be a rapid victory, Russia found itself in the crosshairs. One almost has to wonder if the Chinese are using Russia as a proxy. Keeping the U.S. occupied in Europe certainly works in China’s favor as it eyes an attack on Taiwan.
While the U.S. under Biden sent $175 billion in aid to Ukraine, about 40 percent of which was weapons, Trump is taking a different tack. He is selling advanced weapon systems to allies in Europe and allowing them to pass their older equipment on to Ukraine. The U.S. will continue to support Ukraine with intelligence, targeting, and some equipment, but it is unlikely to ship as many munitions over there. However, we’ll sell them to Poland or another ally and let them give some to Ukraine. Of course, Poland is spooling up its own war machine and has aggressively expanded its own production of critical armaments.
One reason European countries are moving to a war footing, implementing a draft, and buying and building more weapons is that the U.S. has made it clear that European armies will make up the ground forces should the war spill over beyond Ukraine. We will assist with advanced weapons, especially aircraft and long-range weapons, but Europeans need to fight to protect European borders. This has been a wake-up call for much of the EU.
Watch Out! The Gray War Grows
Just as the U.S. maintains deniability when Ukrainian forces attack a target deep in Russia, Russia and its allies are fighting back in different ways that are also deniable. Cyberwarfare is a huge and unseen front in this constant gray war. Every day, cyberattacks hit the U.S.
In this environment, you should maintain good online security, use a VPN, always use two-factor authentication (2FA), never reuse the same password, and keep your computer, drivers, firewall and virus checker software up to date. (Same goes for your phone.) Minimizing your use of social media, having obscure, anonymous, and/or end-to-end encrypted email and chat, and keeping your data private are other important steps.
When things heat up, expect the enemy to step up. Since the war in Ukraine started, we have seen train derailments, food plant fires, unexplained factory explosions, and occasional attacks on the energy grid that could be sabotage or enemy attacks. Most of these are ignored by everyday Americans, but they won’t be ignored if they happen ten times as frequently when sleeper cells are activated.
Attacks and sabotage that cut off the electricity or other utilities, harm the food supply, disrupt cellular communication or GPS accuracy, start fires, or disrupt the transportation networks are a possibility. This is why we prep! So we can live in comfort and safety when systems most Americans rely on fail.
As a prepper, you should be resilient, ready for anything, and beholden to no one.
European leaders need the war to drag on endlessly to avoid having to deal with their internal problems which are massive. Expect escalation at any cost. Does Trump join in? Seems very likely despite his campaign rhetoric.
Of course the new wild card is Venezuala. Does China wait to take Taiwan until Trump is gone?
The biggest donors to the DNC in 2028 will be international actors hoping for a repeat of the auto pen presidency.