The Economy Archives - The Pickled Prepper Blog

Is the Sh*t Hitting the Fan Yet?

Sometimes when the news is bad and it seems like every elected official is violating their oath to uphold the Constitution, you have to wonder how close the poop is to the impeller.

My mind is somewhat boggled. So much stuff is happening at once and very little of it is good. I have to ask myself, how far away is our SHTF moment?

When you have a parabolic curve, it climbs slowly, but before you know it is shooting straight up. I can’t help but wonder if we are at that inflection point. I hate to be an alarmist, but some days it seems like we must be approaching it.

There are protests in countries all over the world, including the U.S., France, Iran, Cuba, Guatemala, Tunisia, Australia, and South Africa. I expect the y will get worse as shortages increase, prices rise, and we go into more lockdowns. In the U.S., I expect we will see protests as the end of the rent moratorium results in upwards of 12 million people unable to pay their past-due rent and now subject to eviction.

Life in These United States

The parallels between the years leading up to the Great Depression and where we stand today are hard to ignore. Is another crash in our future?

Have you ever looked back at the black and white photos taken during the Great Depression? People waiting in lines at soup kitchens. Displaced families living in a ramshackle one-room shanty. People unable to find work. Lines outside of banks during bank runs.

For about 50 years following World War II, that life disappeared. Manufacturing boomed, providing jobs for most anyone who wanted one. Millions moved into the middle class and bought cars and homes, something that once would have been considered impossible. Government brought electricity to rural areas, as was the telephone. Radio and then TV allowed news and information to be broadcast across the nation, and the news was objective. We eradicated diseases like polio and smallpox. Segregation ended. Food was plentiful and children grew larger and stronger. Lifespans lengthened and infant mortality dropped. President Eisenhower created the Interstate highway system. Jet airplanes connected distant cities, and our military won the Cold War.

Today, I look back at the past 50 years, and I wonder what happened to that era when every generation did better than their parents? What was the turning point? When did our country’s arc reach its peak and turn downward?

Is Wells Fargo Canceling Credit Lines a Sign of an Economic Collapse?

The last time personal lines of credit were terminated was in 2008, during the Great Recession. Is this a sign of bad things to come?

Maybe you missed the headlines, but Wells Fargo has canceled all their personal lines of credit. If you don’t have a personal line of credit, you may think, “so what?” But here’s the question you have to answer: Is this a sign of the coming economic collapse or just business as usual?

What Happened

Before we answer that question, let’s look at the mechanics of a personal line of credit, which used to be known as a signature credit line.

How to Survive in a Failed State

There are signs that the U.S. is heading towards and economic collapse which could result in the U.S. becoming a failed state. Are you prepper for that?

Over the past two days I’ve written about how to handle the beginning stages of an economic collapse. Some of the early signs are shortages of goods and a degradation in services, such as police, fire and EMS.

Other signs of an impending or ongoing economic collapse include too much debt, depreciation of currency including inflation or hyperinflation, a stock market collapse, defaulting on sovereign debt, sharply higher unemployment and poverty, an increase in corruption, and growing political repression leading to an autocracy or even a dictatorship.

I’ll leave it up to you to decide if we’re there, on our way there, or nowhere close. I believe we are heading there, but have not yet reached the precipice.

When there is an economic collapse, three things can happen: The country call pull itself out of the collapse, like the U.S. did after the Great depression; the collapse can linger in some ugly nether region where things are bad but people adapt to it, somewhat like life in Cuba; or the collapse can cause a failed state, meaning the collapse of its currency and its government.

How to Handle the loss of Police, Fire and EMS Service in an Economic Collapse

Shortages are bad, but we can stockpile goods and resort to barter. what will you do if the thin blue line disappears and there is no police, fire, EMS or sanitation?

This is part two of our how to handle an economic collapse series. Don’t miss yesterday’s part on how to handle shortages and outages caused by an economic collapse.

I wrote yesterday about how to handle shortages of food, gasoline and other goods. Today, we’ll look at how to handle slowdowns or a lack of services such as police, fire, EMS, and trash hauling and disposal, other potential signs of an economic collapse.

A deterioration of service locally, in a specific city or municipality, might be because of financial mismanagement, a lack of tax income, or other financial problems in that specific state or city. Under-funded pension systems that suck up municipal income, a loss of the tax base because of individuals d business have left the area, or corruption and mismanagement could all contribute to this on a local level. If we see cops and firefighter refusing to go to work because they haven’t been paid in multiple jurisdictions across the country, then this is one sign of a bigger problem.

How to Handle Shortages and Outages in an Economic Collapse

When things start to disappear from the shelves, when it becomes hard to find your medication or the gas pumps run dry, this advice could help.

Shortages are one of the early signs of an impending financial collapse. If they grow from a shortage to an outright outage, then you know you are in the throes of a collapse. When you see purchasing limits, you know shortages are here, but when rationing starts (where the government allows you to buy only a certain amount per week or month), you will know we are in the proverbial “deep doodoo.”

Let me give you an example:

When there was a gasoline shortage, we had to go to multiple gas stations to find gas or might have to buy a different octane rating than they wanted. If there was no gas to be found, people would ask the station when they were expecting a truck. If they expected the truck within an hour or two, drivers would wait for it. In an outage, not only will there be no gas, there will be no hope of gas anytime soon. Before that happens, someone in authority will be give you an app with a QR code that allows you to buy 30 gallons of gas per month (or some other, artificial limit).

Warning: Another COVID-19 Wave Could Strike the U.S.

You can get bowled over by the wave, or you can ride it. Your choice. preparing, just in case, will help you ride it.

I am concerned that a fresh wave of COVID-19 could hit the U.S. this fall and carry through the holiday season. Around the world, the COVID-19 Delta mutation is causing new lockdowns, new restrictions, and a return to masking. Evidence from countries like the UK and Israel point to the possibility that the United States will experience a surge in cases as the Delta mutation strikes not only those who are unvaccinated, but sickens some of the vaccinated as well. This could unravel much of the progress we have made fighting COVID-19, and cause significant social disruption.

If we see another wave—and I will admit that it is only a possibility—then what effect will it have on the economy and society and what can you do to prepare for it? Yes, the hype about Delta may be overblown. It may be the same old crowd the blew prior COVID-19 concerns out of proportion doing it again, as this article suggests. But my opinion is that we should prepare in any case. Even if Delta is overblown, there may still be lockdowns and restrictions, especially with Democrats in control.

What is Hyperinflation and How to Survive it

Are you prepared for runaway inflation? Is anyone? We discuss what hyperinflation looks like and tactics to survive it.

The Bank of America recently warned of “transient hyperinflation.” That sounds bad, but how bad depends on how you define hyperinflation.

The definition of hyperinflation is “inflation at a high rate,” as “uncontrollable inflation,” or “when prices raise uncontrollably,” all of which are not very precise.

What is hyperinflation? Is it double digit inflation? If so, does it start at 11 percent, or closer to 50 percent? Does 100 percent annual inflation count as hyperinflation? Or do you have to reach absurd levels of annual inflation, like 7,000 percent?

Hyperinflation appears to be like art: Economists know it when they see it. And so will you and I, because with runaway inflation, we won’t be able to afford anything.

Is Inflation Transitory? Some, Yes, but Most is Not

The government and the Fed keep telling us that inflation is transitory. Don’t believe them. Some inflation is transitory, but too much of it is not and that will keep prices rising.

I spoke to a smart guy in the financial industry whom I have known for more than 20 years, and I asked him, “Do you think inflation is transitory?” His answer: Yes and no. Some of it probably will be transitory, but some of it definitely is not.

Here’s a boiled down version of his explanation:

Examples of Transitory Inflation

When prices rise because plant closures lead to shortages, because shipping costs escalate or for other reasons that we can expect to be cured in the next year to 18 months, then it is fair to call those transitory. For example, when more microchips reach the market, car and truck production will return to their traditional rates or better, and the number of new cars on dealer lots returns to a reasonable number. If supply and demand is the only reason for the increase in care prices, then car prices will stabilize.

Transitory Hyperinflation is Here and More Bad News

I head down the mountain to revisit society and the news isn’t good. Gas is more expensive, food is costly, and the word “hyperinflation” is no longer just used to describe other countries,

I am on the road today, and after spending seven hours in the truck, I don’t think I have an original essay in me and I really need to get some sleep. So, instead I am giving links to important stories and adding a few comments.

Hyperinflation

The Bank of America’s new Inflation Meter is pointing to transitory hyperinflation, according to this article in ZeroHedge. I have been writing about inflation or months, but this was still a “WTF” moment for me. If we have already moved from inflation into hyperinflation, transitory or not, things are pretty bad. Read their article and if it freaks you out a little, read these recent posts of ours:

How to Cut Back on Spending and Live Frugally During Inflation

All About Inflation and How to Protect Yourself,

Prices are Rising, but Inflation is Only the Tip of the Iceberg

Another Way to Prepare for Inflation: Buy Now to Save Later