On February 24, 2022, some 1460 days ago, Russia invaded Ukraine. On February 25, 2022, I wrote a post with the following lessons from the Ukraine invasion:
- Don’t fall victim to normalcy bias and think, “it can’t happen here”
- Plan for the worst
- Don’t believe your government
- Don’t trust bad actors (specifically people like Putin)
- Don’t wait for the other guy to strike first
- Be prepared
While my prediction that the war would be over in “a few short weeks” was obviously wrong, I stand by those six lessons. Good advice that is still valid today.
Given the advantage of hindsight, what additional lessons might we, as preppers, take from this lengthy war?
Drones Change Everything
Drones continue to rapidly evolve, changing many aspects of war. But how do they change prepping?
First, don’t expect to hide or stay hidden if the opposition has drones. That applies to your retreat, your bunker, your shooting position, or anything you do above ground. If someone with drone assets is trying to find you, they probably will. If you are on the move, they can track you. “They” might be the military or a domestic agency like Homeland Defense, but could also be a civilian whose survival plan is to take out preppers and steal their stuff.
On the opposite side of the equation, drones can also be used by preppers to gather intelligence and perform scouting.
I own a cheap consumer-grade drone, and while it cannot see in the dark or use thermal vision to identify targets, I can use it to see the area around our house and to check on our closest neighbors. For less than $7,000, I could buy something like the DJI Mavic 3 Enterprise Thermal drone with integrated thermal camera and a flight distance of up to nine miles. It can stay airborne for up to 45 minutes. While I don’t plan to get one, if money wasn’t an option, I’d have four plus some high-end units. Drones today are what night vision was ten years ago: a strategic advantage.
Keep in mind that military technology drifts down to the consumer level before long. Prepare for drones and other systems that can target you because you carry a cell phone or radio. Don’t expect to hide if you are using Starlink. If someone wants to track down your signal, they can.
Energy Infrastructure as a Target
Both Ukraine and Russia have targeted each other’s energy infrastructure. In the winter, this not only means no electricity, but often no heat.
While I don’t expect Russian drones to fly over here and hit our electrical generating plants, our substations and other parts of the distribution network may well be targeted by sleeper cells. This is where it pays to have your own source of heat and a backup source of electricity. And while I understand that solar power systems are expensive, generators are relatively cheap. As tens of thousands of people proved during Hurricane Helene, running your generator a few hours in the morning and again at night can give you refrigeration, keep your frozen food frozen, pump some water, run simple kitchen appliances, and keep the lights on. For $600 to $1,000, this investment is worth considering. And if it is just a “local” outage, you should be able to refill your spare gas cans, even if you have to drive to a nearby town to do so.
For heat, options include a wood stove, a propane heater, a kerosene heater, or a boiler or other furnace that runs on fuel oil. There can be advantages to living in houses built before the 1950s, and having a heating system built before forced air heat was popular is one of them.
Expect Sabotage and the Shadow War
The war has seen sabotage on everything from gas pipelines to train tracks. There have been mystery explosions all across Russia and in Ukraine. Even small fires that damage train track switches are setting back the Russian military as they disrupt transportation. On the larger end of the scale, the Elastik Gunpowder plan experienced a massive explosion in August of last year that killed 11 and destroyed four buildings.
The shadow war has its tentacles outside Russia and Ukraine. In 2024, a fire in a logistics hub in East London destroyed thousands of pounds of supplies headed to Ukraine. And last October, a critical munitions plant in Tennessee was destroyed in a massive explosion that was felt 20 miles away. Accident or sabotage? No one admits the latter, but either way it damages the U.S. war machine. There was also been a string of unexplained fires in U.S. food production facilities.
While sabotage is unlikely to affect individual preppers, you should consider an increase in unexplained explosions, derailments, fires, and hacks as a sign that the shadow war is heating up. This may be a precursor to a physical attack. It’s also another reason to prep.
Assassination as a Tool
Just as Israel has used assassination effectively when striking back at Hamas, Hezbollah and its other enemies, it can be employed as an overt weapon of war or as part of the shadow war. Did Iran try to assassinate Donald Trump? We may never know. But we know it has been used in the war.
Ukraine has targeted Russian military officers like Stanislave Rzhitsky, a submarine commander who allegedly fired cruise missiles at civilian targets, and Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov in who was killed when a bomb in a parked scooter went off as he walked by. Military bloggers and Kremlin mouthpieces have also been targeted.
While you and I don’t have to worry about assassination attempts, a wave of killings is yet another sign that something worse is coming. I’ve seen it speculated that killing the president would create an opportunity for a nuclear attack since he could not order a retaliatory strike. I expect we are smart enough to have a workaround for that, but it’s something to be aware of.
Economic Impacts are Extensive
War is expensive. It can be inflationary, which will be exacerbated by shortages. We know the U.S. instituted rationing during WWII. If stores limit purchases, as we saw during COVID, they may not need to do so again. In a four-year-long war, having a basement full of preps would come in handy. And having some gold or silver will help cushion you from inflation.
Both Russia and Ukraine are on a war footing and have an active war economy where much of their manufacturing is going to produce war material. Plan for that to happen here, both as we gear up for a war with China and if the coming war in Iran gets drawn out.
If a country moves to a war economy, metals like steel, aluminum, and titanium get sucked out of the consumer market and start going into military equipment. Same thing happens with advanced materials like carbon fiber, graphite, and advanced composites and engineering polymers. Chips and electronic components—and metals used in electronics like copper, silver, and gold—are also redirected into military equipment. Imports likely drop off a cliff and exports skid to a halt. You thought the supply chain disruption was bad during and after the pandemic? Just wait until we go to war.
No cars, no appliances, no gaming consoles or smartphones. No ammunition for hunters or self-defense. Better hope your TV doesn’t break down because they won’t be $278 at Walmart anymore. And less food, or at least less variety of food than you are used to.
Mandatory Military Service Returns
Overseas, we’re seeing mandatory military service return, and as the young are killed, older and older people are being drafted in Ukraine. Those who lack the physical ability to fight in the trenches may still fly drones, operate radar systems, hack the enemy’s communications, or contribute in another way.
War also means loss of rights. Ukrainians may not post pictures online. They can’t publish anything that would give the Russians a clue what is working or didn’t work. Many are prohibited from leaving the country. Plan for curfews, restrictions, rationing, and other disruptions.
Surviving An Era of War
We appear to have entered an era of war. The U.S. may go to war as soon as this weekend, and it may have unintended consequences that hit us here at home.
Don’t think a war in Iran or with China will affect you? Look at lesson one at the start of this article: Don’t fall victim to normalcy bias and think, “it can’t happen here.” Lesson 2: Plan for the worst.
Do you believe President Trump when he says he wants to talk? Look at lesson 3: Don’t believe your government. And lesson 5: Don’t wait for the other guy to strike first.
Think China won’t attack Taiwan? Let’s revisit lesson 4: Don’t trust bad actors. Xi is as bad as Putin.
And finally, lesson 6: Be prepared. That’s the most important lesson of all.
