If you are planning prep at the last minute, your plan could be doomed to failure for multiple reasons.
We are well-prepared, yet we still have a list of last-minute preps to run out and buy. This includes fresh food like cheese, fruit, vegetables, and bags of potatoes and onions, as well as consumables like chicken feed. These are things we can live without, but it will make life easier if we can run out and pick these items up as things are crumbling. However, as we have seen in the past few weeks, we may not be able to run out and make these last-minute pickups.
Snow Storm Lessons
When the recent ice storm was heading our way, grocery stores ran out of key items three days before the weather hit. The Walmart ran out of bottled water so fast that the local hardware store posted on Facebook telling people they had bottled water, and then they sold out.
You could still get food at Walmart—the shelves were not completely bare—but eggs, milk, and bread (the so-called French toast trio) ran out. Then the store closed on the day of the storm. That caught people by surprise.
Now take that experience and extrapolate it to what things would be like if a nuclear device exploded in Los Angeles or the port of New Orleans. It wouldn’t just be the French toast trio that sold out, but canned food, pasta, breakfast cereals, all the chips and snacks, and anything else that is shelf-stable.
Store Closures and Transportation Issues
No matter how dedicated you might be to go out and buy last-minute preps as the bombs are falling, you can’t be sure the store will be open. If employees don’t show up or walk out, the management will have no choice but to lock the place up. What are you going to do then? Wait until enough angry people show up to loot the place?
The same thing goes for online orders. How likely is it your InstaCart and Amazon drivers are going to be working when all hell is breaking loose, schools are closed, the government is on the brink of declaring martial law, and the police are setting up roadblocks and only allowing “essential” people through. Those drivers might be among the first back at work when things calm down, but don’t count on your order arriving in a timely manner.
In the aftermath of the ice storm, I watched as the delivery date on an Amazon.com delivery order got pushed back one day, the next day, the day after, and was finally delivered almost a week late. If we’d had some kind of enemy attack instead of a weather event, my order would probably still be in a warehouse in another state.
In a TEOTWAWKI situation, I might have time to run out and get gas at the closest station, buy a loaf of bread from the local bakery, maybe pick up a few groceries at the Dollar General, and still get home in an hour. I can’t count on getting to Walmart or the nearest grocery store. No way we can get to Sam’s Club in that scenario, and it’s unlikely any deliveries from those outlets will reach us in time.
Watching for the Signs of a Coming Disaster
Your best bet is to be ahead of the curve. That means prep now, and then watch for signs of a coming disaster. I can’t predict what that sign might be, but hopefully you will know it when you see it.
Here is what is on my radar: Right now, a storm is brewing in Iran that will affect the Strait of Hormuz and the price of oil. In the mid-term, I see economic challenges ahead and the possibility of more civil unrest before, during, and after the mid-term elections. Further down the road, the threat of China attacking Taiwan (and possibly Japan and the U.S.) is a real possibility.
The ideal window to pick up or order last-minute preps is five to ten days before the SHTF. You want to beat the rush, to get there before the shelves empty.
We did this for COVID, hitting Costco while they still had toilet paper. While we shopped early, we were not alone; the store was ridiculously busy for a weekday, so be warned: you will not be the only person doing your last-minute prepping a bit earlier than the masses. Here’s snippet from the first post I ever made on this site, back in March 2020 when COVID was just starting to alarm people. It is from a text my adult daughter sent me:
“Went to the grocery store to get some stuff on your list. I was at Aldi when it opened at 9 a.m. Line around the building to get in. Apparently, Walmart down the road ran out of pasta, sauce, tp and MEAT!!! Aldi ran out of stuff but got a truck in overnight. People are nuts, so I stocked up on meat as well as cans of soup, chili, veggies, pasta, rice, etc.”
Government Imposed Shutdowns Could Loom
We could see COVID coming, but the 9/11 attacks were a surprise. Unlike a hurricane, an ice storm, or the war in Ukraine, there was no warning, no chance to buy last-minute supplies.
I know some of my readers are young enough that they are not aware of what the government did in the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon, but if we see another large-scale terrorist or enemy attack, expect similar disruptions to “business as usual.” These may affect your ability to prep. Here is what I recall:
- All airline travel was grounded, and planes were directed to land at the nearest airport. Flights inbound from Europe were forced to land in Canada, Iceland, and Greenland. People had to find alternative ways home, and rental cars ran out in just hours.
- The borders virtually shut down. Extra inspections meant wait times at border crossings reached 15 hours.
- The U.S. halted maritime travel to prevent an attack from the sea.
- The stock markets were closed through 9/17, the longest shutdown since the Great Depression.
- While the government didn’t tell businesses to close, many did so. Many events were canceled and large building voluntarily closed out of fear they could be targeted.
While this didn’t occur before, I would also expect increased scrutiny of vehicles on Interstates with particular attention paid to cars with out-of-state plates and vehicles carrying military-age males.
The result could be a breakdown in our just-in-time supply chain. That means when bottled water and bread sell out, they might not be back for a while. And when someone like us buys up three or four bags of potatoes instead of just one, there will be fewer for everyone else.
Don’t Wait
Just like you should have your plywood or hurricane shutters in your garage ready to be installed before they predict a storm is heading your way, you need to be prepared for the unexpected before it surprises you. People in the North buy their ice melt and tune up their snow blower before the first snowflake falls. There is no reason not to apply that approach to the rest of your daily life.
Consider this your advanced warning. It may be the only one you get.
