As we close out day Five of the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, I ask myself: Are we safer than we were before?
Yes, I believe the attacks have made the world safer and the country safer, but for me on the side of my mountain, not much has changed. I’m still as safe as I was. And yes, several Americans and many others have died or been injured, but the big picture is greater safety for the vast majority of us.
There are still things that can go wrong, and I’m not talking about rising oil prices or falling stock markets. I expect those will both bounce back when this is over. Just as Kuwait shot down three American F-15E fighter jets in a friendly fire incident, there could be more accidents, bad luck can still strike, and there may be unintended consequences. But when I look at the way things are going from my personal perspective, I have no complaints.
The Next Big Threat
Let’s look at some big threats we may be facing in the mid-to long-term and see how the war in Iran affects them.
The War in Ukraine/Europe
While the use of so many U.S. missiles may mean fewer armament shipments to Ukraine, this was already in the cards under a second Trump term. At this stage of the war, however, Ukraine is pretty good at producing its own cruise missiles, drones, and other offensive weapons. For the first time since 2024, they are also retaking territory held by Russia, mostly because the Russians are experiencing communication problems. The net result is that I don’t see the war in Iran hurting Ukraine. If anything, the idea that an enemy can be decapitated, losing 49 senior Iranian leaders in a few hours, may cause some Russians to think twice about attacking another European country and inviting a NATO response.
A Possible Taiwan Invasion
While that last sentence applies to China as well as Russia, this war will do one of two things: convince China to attack Taiwan now while the U.S. is focused in the Middle East, or think twice about going head-to-head with the U.S. in the next 12 to 24 months. If I were in China, I’d wait until after the next election. If a Democrat won, I’d wait three years until the inevitable military deterioration set in, and then I’d attack. While we are apparently not seeing any signs of an imminent Taiwan invasion, China could still take some minor aggressive action in the South China Sea by claiming an island, attacking a Philippine ship, or sending a squad or two of aircraft toward Taiwan just to rattle their sabers and make a point.
As I said previously, if the U.S. stays engaged in Iran for months, China’s calculus might change.
Inflation or an Economic Collapse
War boosts economies, at least in the short term. A show of strength—and this is an unmistakable demonstration of American military strength—tends to strengthen currencies. By not coming to Iran’s aid, the BRIC nations, especially their allies China and Russia, are showing a lack of strength an commitment. Anyone thinking about turning their dollar in for Chinese Renminbe or Russian Rubles is probably rethinking that decision.
Wars can also be inflationary, but if in four to six months the result is a calmer oil market and safer passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, lower prices could counteract that.
This war will also mean lots of new production of munitions, which means jobs not only among the defense contractors but at their subcontractors, steel mills, and other parts of the supply chain. We may see the federal deficit increase, but it would have done that anyhow. In my opinion, this war delays a fiscal collapse.
A Civil War
I don’t think the war in Iran will have any impact on the possibility of a civil war in the United States. If all goes well, it may bolster Republican chances in the midterms. It is certainly effective in making Democrats look like they are supporting terrorism rather than America, but that’s nothing new. Democrats haven’t been patriotic since 9/11.
It may have taken ICE raids off the front page, but any lone wolf or sleeper cell attacks conducted by illegal immigrants will make a point all but the most rabid liberals will understand.
While this war may increase the divide between left and right, I don’t see it driving us any closer to civil war.
What to Do?
Just because the war is going well is no reason to let your guard down. While eliminating the Iranian leadership may mean no one is available to activate sleeper cells, we shouldn’t assume that will always be the case. Besides, they might be more effective months after the war is over, when law enforcement lets its guard down and the rest of us are distracted.
I’m returning to Condition Yellow, but I won’t be flying anywhere or visiting a large city. So stay prepped. Stay strapped. But don’t hold your breath.
