It looks like war in Iran is just days away, and by “days,” I mean one to ten days. Rather than discuss the war, I’m writing to address whether a war with Iran is something you should prepare for.
There is no simple answer. It’s not a yes or no; it’s an “It depends.” So, what does it depend on, besides your existing level of preps? Here’s my list:
- How long will the war last?
- Do China and/or Russia get involved, and if so, to what extent?
- Will China take advantage of a third of the U.S. Navy being in the Middle East to stir up trouble in the South China Sea?
- Does Iran have any nuclear weapons, and if so, will it use them?
- Will it lead to terrorist or sleeper cell attacks here in the U.S.?
Let’s look at these one at a time.
How Long Will the Iran War Last?
When Israel attacked Iran in June 2025, the war was over in twelve days. If we can hit that same target, then little or no preparation is required. Sure, there will be stock market shivers, the price of oil will rise, and gold and silver may jump, but these will be short term.
But Iran seems to be preparing more than they did last summer, and it is threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz. What if this isn’t a 12-day war?
I expect this will be Shock and Awe 2.0. It will make the U.S. efforts in Kuwait against Iraq look like child’s play. That was 35 years ago. Our technology has improved. Our weapons have improved. The U.S. ability to manage the battlespace dwarfs what we saw then.
Back in 1991, the U.S. led a five-week aerial offensive against Saddam Hussein’s forces and then had a 100-hour ground war that left miles of destroyed Iraqi hardware littering the desert as soldiers dropped their weapons, stripped off their uniforms, and ran. It would not surprise me if we see a devastating air war that lasts closer to that 100-hour mark than the five-week one and does far more damage.
We also have to wait and see what the Iranian people do. Will they take advantage of the U.S. attacks to topple their government? Will the Iranian leaders flee? Either will shorten the war.
My prediction: 80 percent chance the war is effectively over in the same 12 days. If that is the case, the only thing you have to prepare for is that temporary bump in energy prices, a drop in the financial markets, and a surge in precious metals and other “safe haven” assets.
Will China and/or Russia Get Involved?
Both Russia and China largely abandoned Iran during last year’s war with Israel. While they may or may not have provided some advanced arms to Iran since then, I don’t see them doing much more than observing and filing protests with the UN. Oh, they may try to jam some GPS signals, launch a few cyberattacks, and up the number of bots and paid sycophants spreading fake news, but we won’t see their submarines sinking U.S. ships or their ships firing missiles at ours.
I think the extent of Russia’s on-site involvement will be to offer the Iranian leadership safe passage to exile, accompanied by most of the country’s gold and uranium.
The pending U.S. war in Iran is a chance for the United States to show off its war power. If we cripple Iran as effectively as we did Venezuela, it could well make China rethink and delay its plans to invade Taiwan. We may also unveil capabilities that send Russia and China back to the drawing board.
This attack is Donald Trump’s opportunity to demonstrate to Russia, China, and Europe what the modern battlefield looks like, and it isn’t a muddy stretch of ground in Ukraine. It is his way to re-assert U.S. dominance, and that is why I think he will go balls-to-the-wall. If the U.S. war in Iran is a resounding success, Trump’s threats will carry more weight and we won’t have to go to war again.
China is going to be watching how the weapons systems and technology it has shared with Iran fare against U.S. forces. They will learn, but will they be able to step it up? Time will tell. If our show of force pushes the timetable for a Taiwan invasion back to sometime in the 2030s instead of 2027, that is a resounding win.
Will China Stir Up Trouble in the South China Sea?
Not if the war is over quickly. If it carries on for months and we lose important assets or use up thousands of missiles, it could encourage them to move up the timetable for the Taiwan invasion.
If that happens, you will definitely want to prepare.
Will Iran use Nuclear Weapons?
To the best of my knowledge, Iran does not have nuclear weapons. I they did, it’s likely they would have used them on Israel. Could they have developed a handful since that attack? Possibly. If so, would they use it on the U.S. fleet or against Israel? Either way, a ballistic missile could well be shot down.
I don’t expect this conflict to move beyond conventional weapons, but if Iran turns to nukes, expect Tehran to quickly become a glowing crater.
Will there be Terrorist or Sleeper Cell Attacks in the U.S.?
If you want to prep for something, this is where I would focus my resources. What does that look like? Here’s what I suggest:
- Stay off airplanes.
- Don’t travel abroad.
- Stay close to home once the war breaks out. Minimize travel to the city center and other crowded areas that are potential targets of opportunity.
- Stay off public transportation.
- Wear your EDC pistol and some reloads. Not that tiny backup gun, but something with some stopping power.
- Carry a long gun and six magazines in your car. Your PCC is okay, but a 5.56 or similar is better than a 9mm.
- If you have a ballistic vest or plate carrier, go ahead and kit yourself out. Don’t walk around in it thinking you are cool, but keep it handy on the off chance you have an opportunity to stop a bunch of terrorists shooting up your local grocery store, elementary school, or electrical substation. Be prepared to protect yourself and your community if individual bad actors are running about. The odds of your neighborhood being targeted by terrorists are extremely low, but that doesn’t mean it’s impossible, just unlikely.
My Best Guess
Let me remind you that while I am an experienced prepper, I’m no expert in foreign wars and have no first-hand knowledge of what Iran, Donald Trump, Russia, or China will do. My predictions are educated guesses and assumptions fed by open-source intelligence, my personal experience, and my gut. They could very well be wrong. Do your own research, come to your own conclusions, and prepare accordingly.
But remember, after disaster struck, no one ever said, “Darn, I was too well prepared.”
Video of the Day
This video does a nice job of fact-checking a piece of propaganda, or what some might call “fake news.” Be careful what you watch and what you believe.
