In our last post, we discussed a scenario in which Russia used about two dozen tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, hoping to win the war in a single blow. We recommend that you read part one before continuing.
Our 48-Hour Prepper Action Plan
This scenario described in Part One has one enormous advantage over other nuclear incidents: everything is fine here at home, at least in the short term. The lights are on. The Internet works. Store shelves are well-stocked. The ATMs have cash. Gas stations have not run dry. We would take advantage of this, and so should you.
I don’t know your situation, your preps, or your location, so you have to come up with your own plan. I can, however, tell you what it would look like at our house:
My wife is an early riser, so I expect she would get this news sometime around 5 a.m. She is smart enough to wake me when she sees what has happened. I would be grumpy, but I would also get dressed, armed, and we would head to Walmart, which opens at six. With any luck, we would beat the rush.
On the way there, I would make calls to my daughter and Karl, suggesting they bug out to our place for the duration.
Last Minute Shopping
At Walmart, we would each get a cart. As long as it appeared safe to shop independently, she would go off and get fresh food. This includes things with a decent but not unlimited shelf life, like cheese, butter, meats (which we would freeze), potatoes, onions, squash, and possibly baked goods that can be frozen, like bagels and English muffins. Part two of her list would be fresh foods that have a shorter shelf life to top off our supplies. This includes sour cream, fresh vegetables, bananas, deli meat, shredded cheese in bags, snacks, and anything else she wants. The last items would be flour and baking mixes, spaghetti sauce (we have far more noodles in storage than we do sauce) and canned vegetables.
While she is doing this, I would be focused on pet food, kitty litter, and chicken feed. I don’t normally buy chicken feed at Walmart because it is expensive and comes in 40-pound bags rather than 50, but in this scenario we’ll take what we can get. I would also pick up OTC medical items, laundry detergent, dishwasher detergent, paper towels, toilet paper, and other non-food items.
On the way home, we would stop and get as much cash from the ATM as we are allowed. When we get back to the house, I’d unload the truck onto the porch or into the garage and let her put everything away while I make another supply run. While I am gone, she will go to the gas station and fill her car up and buy anything we might need from the village while she is there. There is a small baker who makes sourdough bread, for example, so she may be able to get a nice loaf and some starter so we can bake our own.
Phase 2
I head to my favorite general store to pick up more chicken layer feed, scratch, and chick feed. I want to buy at least six months’ worth because you never know. While I am at the general store, I would pick up a spare battery for my 12-volt electric fence, just in case, plus some pint jars, quart jars, and several dozen lids.
On the way there, I’d call my neighbor with goats and suggest she buy some goat food and bales of both hay and straw before the prices rise. If she agrees that this is a good idea, I would ask her to pick up six bales of straw for me. That’s enough to last us a year. (She has a bigger pickup plus a trailer. I can only hold four bales in my truck, and not with the back full of feed. If necessary, I can make a second trip.)
On the way there, I would also call my other daughter and tell her to go shopping. She has a chest freezer and a basement full of supplies, but more are better. She would likely tell me she had already stopped by Aldi after she dropped her daughter off at school. I’d recommend she make a second run before the shelves are empty.
On the way home, I’d also call my neighbor with the heavy equipment and tell him the price of diesel, which is climbing. I’d recommend he top off the tanks on all his equipment and then refill his cans and his 100-gallon tank before prices rise any further. If the opportunity comes up, I’d tactfully suggest he fills his propane tank, too.
Topping it Off
After unloading the feed, I would do what I suggested to my neighbor and top off the gas tank on my Ranger, the generator, the log splitter, etc. Then I’d take my now empty gas cans into town and refill them with no-ethanol gas and then top off the truck.
Right now, I don’t need firewood, but I might when this scenario takes place. If so I’d call my firewood delivery guy and ask for a load or even two. It may take him a day or two to deliver, but that’s OK. I think it will be a few days, maybe even a few weeks, before the other shoe drops.
By the time we sit down for lunch, our most important last-minute preps would be done. We’re pretty well prepped, and the trip to Walmart and buying animal feed would fill in the blanks.
After lunch, I would sit down at my computer and pull up my shopping lists for Costco, Sam’s Club, and Amazon and place online orders for things like crackers, peanut butter, canned pork, bags of wheat, more canned vegetables, canned fruit, etc. Some things might already be sold out, but between the three, I hope to have ordered everything on our list. Whether it shows up is another story, but we’d keep our fingers crossed.
Monitoring the News
From this point on, we will monitor the news several times a day. My wife focuses on local and community news, monitoring Facebook groups, Emergency Management channels, and touching bases with her network of friends all over the county. I focus on national news outlets, YouTube, and Twitter. We keep each other up-to-date when we hear something important.
My daughter showed up that night. She brings a “friend,” but we know him, so that’s OK. We can use young, strong backs.
Karl arrives the next day with his girlfriend and his adult son. They drove two pickup trucks, each hauling a trailer. That’s great because it means more food, guns, ammo, gas cans, chainsaws, and other supplies. Assuming things stay calm, he and his son plan to drive back the next day and bring another double load. He will also bring his Ranger Polaris, which has two rows of seats while mine only has one.
His daughter and her family decided not to bug out, at least not yet. While they would be welcome here, we are already short on beds. Plus, she has Celiac disease and can’t eat wheat, and wheat is an important part of our food storage plan. Her absence makes our logistics easier.
Taking Stock
After unpacking, we review everything we have on hand, and Karl makes it a priority to pick up his 5-gallon pails of oatmeal, wheat, beans, more #10 cans, and all his remaining freeze-dried food. A retired police training officer, he has taken armorer classes from Glock, Smith & Wesson, Colt, Sig, and many other companies. I suggest he bring his Remington 870 and Glock tools and parts. I don’t have any parts for Remington shotguns, and we can always use more Glock parts. He also has more ammo in cans stored in the crawl space under his house, which he may bring.
When they leave the next morning, I go with them, but I only drive as far as my storage unit. I pick up some things we might need and head home. They continue back to their distant city.
Violence Breaks Out
The father-and-son team come back in the wee hours of the morning, exhausted after the rapid round trip. They tell us the full story only after sleeping in the next morning. They left earlier than planned because the rule of law was breaking down in the city and they didn’t want to get trapped in it. A Walmart just a few miles from his house was looted, and protestors smashed windows when a local Kroger’s ran out of food. The pharmacist at a CVS was held at gunpoint until he turned over all the “good” drugs.
When they heard the news, they strapped the Polaris down, got on the interstate, and headed west, a convoy of two armed men in two pickup trucks drinking Mountain Dew to help keep awake. They reported seeing fires in the distance as they passed one city. He said they didn’t think it was safe to stop for gas until they reached the mountains and got off the Interstate.
The governor had moved schools to remote learning, but there has been no trouble in our neck of the woods. Facebook reports say most of the food in the Walmart was gone in less than 36 hours and Dollar General shortly after that. Shelves are being restocked, but they can’t keep up with demand. The trucks were still running, but no one knows for how long. New reports show looting in Atlanta and riots in Portland. Over the course of the next day, the violence increases.
Have you Made a Plan Yet?
Even if the U.S. is not a target, the use of nuclear weapons by Russia or another other aggressor will bring the world to a level of danger not seen in the past fifty years.
For the same reason Russia could not let the attack on the Kremlin go unpunished, Europe would not want to let Russia go unpunished. The big question is, will the Europeans—who for the most part have small armies and are under-armed—fight a conventional war or decide they must resort to nuclear weapons to fight fire with fire? This may depend on whether Europe is on its own or if NATO responds, which it may not because Ukraine is not a NATO member. Wil the U.S. respond militarily, and to what extent?
If France or England decides to use nuclear weapons, will the U.S. get drawn into the battle? Russia’s nuclear arsenal far outnumbers the roughly 500 warheads fielded by France and England, but if Russia uses them, it could give the U.S. a numeric advantage in strategic weapons. Plus, we would get to see if Russia’s nuclear arsenal is well maintained, or maintained only as well as the rest of its Cold War military equipment, much of which failed early in the Ukraine war.
The U.S. would be better off standing on the sidelines if a nuclear exchange broke out in Europe, but would it? Will Russia attack us or limit its fight to the European theater? There is no way to know.
Survival Scenarios
So, consider the various scenarios. What do you think will happen? Will you act or be passive? What do you need to do to keep yourself and your family safe? Will you bug out or bug in? Where will you be the safest if war does break out? What is your plan if nuclear missiles fly in Europe? Or head across he Atlantic? If you don’t have one, it may be a good thought exercise to make one. Just in case.
Check back for part three of this series in which we discuss the possibility of using nuclear weapons in Iran.
These 2 have been great. Looking forward to the last one. I often feel like our paths on prepping run the same lines. I don’t have Kim that are going to be able to help (many are old or liberal minded sadly) but my neighbors, so to speak, are like minded.