Last week, we learned that more than 900,000 jobs the government said were created in the year ending March 2025 didn’t exist. In other words, government projections, most of which were made under Biden, were wrong, and no one realized it until they compiled unemployment data from state unemployment agencies and did some math. Talk about fake news!
Some say this is “proof” we have been in a recession for a year, or we’ve been in and are not out of a recession. It takes two consecutive quarters of “real negative GDP growth,” but if we can’t trust the government’s unemployment data, can we trust their GDP data?
Trump claims these fake numbers were publicized to make it look like the economy under Biden was doing well to improve his chances at reelection. Whether the distortion was done on purpose, the inflated numbers did make the economy under Biden appear better than it was. But is that the work of the deep state, or just an error in data collection?
We’ve also heard of state and local officials changing crime data to make their cities look safer. Apparently, police brass would show up at a shooting and record a murder as an “accidental death” to make their numbers look better. Data corruption seems to be a recurring problem.
Anyone who trusts their gut or tracks their spending on food knows that the inflation during 2021-23 was higher than the Biden administration claimed. It seems like Jerome Powell was the only person who believed inflation would be “transitory.”
So the big question is, can we believe any government numbers? And if not, what does that mean?
Rely on Your Own Data
I listen to government data points, but I take them with a grain of salt and assume the worst. So if they say inflation is up, I believe it is up; I just believe it is up more than they say.
More important than data on a national scale is data in your local area. For example, housing prices may be up in some markets, but not yours, or vice versa. If a large employer in your area closes or lays off thousands of people, your area is likely going to see higher unemployment than the national average. That may cause a localized recession. If people leave town after a plant closing, housing prices in the area will fall. This local data is far more important than what is happening in Texas, Florida, New York, or California.
You can gather local data by reading the local newspaper and local online posts from fellow citizens, talking to others in the community, watching local real estate listings, observing how many companies are hiring, and seeing how many businesses close or commercial buildings have for-lease signs. You can even judge how your local economy is doing by the change in how many people having lunch at the local hole-in-the-wall or shop at Walmart three weeks after the first of the month, which is when EBT card balances run low. If those numbers are down, so is your local economy.
Hard-to-Miss Warning Signs
Judge unemployment not by the reported numbers, but by what the government does about it. If they extend the number of months you can collect unemployment, then unemployment is high and we are in a recession. If a municipal government raises taxes and cuts services, then it is facing a budget shortfall. When the trash piles up, they stop giving raises, and the cops and the fire department go on strike, your municipality is in bad shape.
Similar signs take place in corporate America. Hiring freezes are the first sign, followed by early retirement offers and then layoffs. Layoffs of more than 10 percent of the workforce are usually a sign of a problem on either the top or bottom line.
A serious warning sign is when multiple banks collapse. Only two banks have failed in 2025. When the Fed stopped raising rates, it may have saved more banks from failing. In contrast, 25 banks failed in 2008, and that was just the beginning. The following year, there were 140 failures. 2010 topped the list with 157. Now that was a serious recession.
Free Money
Another warning sign is when the government sends out stimulus checks. That’s proof the national economy took a hit and needs a jolt of juice. It’s also a warning to prep for inflation down the road. Quantitative easing (QE) — when the government lends money at little or no interest rates, relaxes banking requirements, and inflates the monetary supply — is another sign inflation will head our way.
We may see QE in the next months or years as the Fed tries to keep the economy humming along in the face of massive deficits and debt; we’ll have to wait and see. It’s possible Trump’s plans, the lower taxes in the Big Beautiful Bill, and his America First agenda will spur economic growth, making QE less necessary, but it’s too soon to tell. If tax receipts start to climb, consumer spending increases, and consumer sentiment improves, we could avoid a recession and see continued growth. Assuming you believe the government GDP numbers, of course. This is where you’ll have to rely on your eyes, your ears, and your gut.
Frothiness and Inflation Fears
Repeated stock market highs may be telling us that corporate earnings are rising and people with money are pouring it into the stock market. However, when we combine that data point with the soaring silver and gold prices, it makes me wonder if both markets are climbing because the dollar is declining. The value of an ounce of gold or a share of Apple remains the same, but our unit of measurement is shrinking., which makes their price tag increase.
If that is the case, then imported goods will grow more expensive, and we could see some more inflation down the road. I believe inflation is inevitable. Not necessarily this year or in 2026, but eventually. Preppers looking at dangers in the mid to long-term should put inflation or even hyperinflation and a collapse on their horizon.
Unless the government cuts the deficit by booking more revenue or spending less money, there is no way to resolve the climbing cost of maintaining our debt. We can revalue the gold that is (supposedly) in Fort Knox, but that is a small move versus a gargantuan debt. We can charge foreigners to live in the U.S. and boost tariffs, but the most impactful way to cut the deficit is to cut spending, and no one has the political willpower to do that, with the possible exception of Rand Paul.
