Hurricane False Alarm and Mass Shootings

We had 3.6 inches of rain between Thursday and Saturday. That’s quite a bit of rain, but nowhere near as much as we had before Hurricane Helene. I remember checking our rain gauge last year before the hurricane had even hit land, and it had overflowed—despite holding six inches.

But we only expect another 2.5 inches as the storm is expected to move out to sea. Nowhere near enough to cause flooding. This is a relief to the entire area, which commemorated the devastation of Hurricane Helene on Saturday.

Granted, the water is rushing down the streams and creeks, and the rivers are brown and dirty with runoff, but they are not close to overflowing. The rivers churn, but are well below flood stage. Even better, we had less than a quarter inch of rain on Sunday, giving time for the water to soak into the ground and the runoff to get downstream before any rain from Tropical Storm Imelda reaches us. That should also help minimize flooding.

On Friday night, the European model showed the hurricane coming ashore in South Carolina and stalling. We were looking at it bringing us six or more inches of rain. That was enough to get us worried. Saturday’s forecasts had more models showing the storm skirting the shore before heading out to sea. As Ryan Hall said, a third of the models showed Imelda veering west, with one of the spaghetti lines heading to Atlanta. Another third had the hurricane being sucked out to sea in Hurricane Humberto’s footsteps. The final third had it hovering just offshore before turning east and going out to sea, but with less rain for the Appalachians. As of Sunday evening, it looks to be heading east, just grazing the Carolinas.

Last Minute Preps Complete

It cost $65 to fill my empty cans and the truck. I purchased eight more T-posts and picked up four more pallets for our landslide containment system, but I didn’t install them. It took two days to charge more than 50 batteries, six headlamps and several other battery-powered devices. (I think I have gone overboard on 18650s, but I bought 20 for $2 each and another batch of 21 used batteries for $1.67 each.)

I also fed the bees and cleaned out the gutters. The hurricane may miss us, but we are now ahead on our winter preps and ready for a blizzard.

Checking our EDC and Bugout Bags

When I was charging all our devices, I sorted through our various survival bags and pulled out the headlamps and batteries to charge them. One had a battery bank, another a solar power panel, most had 18650s, and all of them had CR124 batteries and headlamps.

Like checking and charging the lights mounted on my guns, this wasn’t strictly necessary for hurricane preps, but it’s a good idea to do every year.

I’m sure when I die and my kids go through my stuff, they’ll shake their heads and wonder why Dad had so damn many flashlights and headlamps. Hopefully, that won’t be for some time yet.

More Mass Shootings

On Saturday evening, someone who is reportedly a disgruntled Marine veteran drove his boat up to a dockside restaurant in Southport, N.C., and opened fire, killing three and injuring eight in what is apparently a random rather than targeted shooting.

The next day, another Marine veteran rammed his car into a Mormon church in Grand Blanc Township, Michigan, opened fire on the worshippers, and then set the church on fire. At least four are dead and eight injured, with fears that others may have died in the fire. The suspect is believed to have used accelerants and possibly explosive devices. The chapel is a total loss. His motive is unknown.

It will be interesting to see what conspiracy theories these attacks generate. Mind control and false flags are the two I would expect to see.

This weekend’s shootings are both examples of people attacking places where there are large numbers of people and small numbers of guns. Just last week, I posted “Are You Prepared for Violence?” and discussed how I avoid crowds and gun-free zones. I also warned that the worst is yet to come. I didn’t expect it would arrive this soon, but that just reinforces the need to get prepared for violence, even in small towns and peaceful churches.

Assassinations and Mass Shootings Grow Weirder

I know GIs wrote messages on bombs we dropped on Germany and Japan during WWII, but since when have people started writing on the bullet casings? That’s bad enough, but to put threatening messages on your rifle is just stupid. If you get pulled over with a rifle in your car, you could be heading to the range. That’s not a crime. But if your rifle is filled with political hate or threatening messages targeting a specific group, that’s likely to get you arrested or perhaps committed.

The first manifesto I remember hearing about was the one written by the Unibomber. Now everyone who plans an attack seems to write one. I tend to equate manifestos left behind by mass shooters with the videos recorded by Muslim suicide bombers. I believe these manifestos are clear evidence that the killers are mentally ill.

And why is there a sudden uptick in trans people shooting up schools? Gender fluidity is probably more accepted by the public education system and universities than anywhere in what I will call the “real world.” If trans and queer people think they are being targeted, I have no problem if they exercise their rights and carry for defensive purposes. But to go on a mass shooting spree at a church or school doesn’t solve the problem or win them acceptance. It just increasingly demonizes them and creates more opportunities for condemnation.

War in Europe

Russia seems to be moving closer to war in Europe. Multiple drone incursions and airplanes testing NATO air defenses are encouraging Europe to move towards a more aggressive defensive posture. This moves Europe closer to war by increasing the chance that one side will do something the other cannot forgive, possibly by accident.

The U.S. under Donald Trump continues to run hot and cold, wanting to leave the defense of Europe to the Europeans (as one would think should be the case) but is concurrently stepping up the threats and rhetoric. Russia has repeatedly stated that NATO has declared war on Russia because it supplies weapons and training to the Ukrainians. It may use this as an excuse to justify an attack on a NATO country.

Meanwhile, Russia is in trouble on the economic front as the economy craters, gasoline becomes scarce, and the populace grows angry. If Ukraine can withstand the Russian assault for another six months, one of two things may happen: Russia may collapse under its own weight, or the entire continent might go to war. It’s impossible to know which is more likely. The best chance for peace may well lie in Putin being overthrown by someone willing to step back from a military attack and rebuild the country. The oligarchs, who made a fortune after the USSR collapsed in the 1980s, are the most likely candidates. That might be bad for Russia, but not so bad for the rest of the world.

Hot and Cold

When seen from enough distance to have some objectivity, it’s funny to see how the situation seems to go from calm to panicked to calm and back again cyclically. There have been weeks this year where things were going smoothly and it felt like there was no need to prep. One month later, things are so tense, you wonder if the sh*t could hit the fan the very next day.

Don’t get caught up in this cycle. Be prepared during the good times and bad. Make special preps when you face a personal or regional threat, as we did for the possibility of Hurricane Imelda. Keep informed about national trends and global threats, but don’t let them disrupt your life.

Unfortunately, chaos, disruption and strife are pretty normal throughout human history. Your objective as a prepper is to live through it and despite it, both when it flares up and when it does not. Prepare and then relax, knowing you have done what you can.