Why Preppers Should Ignore the Geopolitical Noise

Gasoline in town now costs $1.10 more per gallon than it did prior to the war, an increase of 41 percent. Our local gas station owner doesn’t think it will last. That was my initial opinion, but we’ll have to wait and see.

When the Iranian president earlier this week said Iran was willing to end the war, the Dow Jones jumped more than 1,100 points. Then Trump announced Iran was asking for a ceasefire, but that we would not accept until they reopened the Strait of Hormuz. This sounds very positive, but can we believe it? Is the president of Iran actually in charge? Will Iran “surrender” and then go right on launching missiles and attacking ships? After all, as soon as we read reports that they are asking for a ceasefire, a different spokesperson denies it.

As far as I am concerned, we can’t believe a word they say. Most of the “official” news released by Iran has about as much credibility as Baghdad Bob, the Iraqi Information Minster who in 2003 insisted on camera that there were no American in Baghdad while American tanks were visible behind him. I expect the Iranians to lie to make what’s left of their regime seem like they are winning, and no one believes them except the gullible, including many Democrats.

I was hoping something from Trump’s speech would shed some light on the issue, but I am left without a fixed date of when the war will end. Plus, Trump is well known for exaggerating and often taking a wild position, either to get an advantage in a negotiation or to make himself and his administration look good. So who do we believe, and what is happening in Iran?

Does it Matter?

In terms of your preparedness efforts, it should not matter if the war ends this weekend, in August, or in 2028. You should be well prepared, regardless. If you are not, you should be preparing, mostly for the economic impact and shortages that might result from a lengthy war in the Middle East or for the lingering effects after the war is officially over while  the oil market remains disrupted. We’re seeing the impact on gasoline prices, but those could roll over to food and other everyday items. Stock up.

It never hurts to plan. It never hurts to be prepared. But it can hurt to be caught by surprise or to be unprepared when disaster hits.

Is there a Hidden Agenda?

The war in Iran is Israel and the U.S. versus Iran, but the true target is likely China. China does not make enough oil or food to support its population. We’ve already curtailed the oil from Venezuela reaching China; now we are choking off their pipeline from the Middle East. When Iran attacks oil or gas infrastructure in its neighboring countries, China squawks nervously while Trump just shrugs and says, “We don’t get our oil from there.” He is sending China a message.

Much of what Trump has accomplished since he started his second term has been aimed at making the U.S. more independent, more self-sufficient, and more willing and able to go it alone. This is just another example of that.

I have to wonder if Trump is purposely hurting the global oil, fertilizer, food, and other markets to alarm China and to wake up Europe. I don’t think he cares if Europeans are cold in the winter. It will just make U.S. natural gas more valuable. And if they feel threatened and buy more weapons, then they are also playing into his hands because that is what he wants the European Union to do. Trump knows they need the U.S. more than we need them, and his attitude demonstrates that. In a way, he’s treating Europe like Cuba and waiting until they come crawling to him to ask for help.

That leads me to believe he’ll let the war go on until the pain at home threatens to become too strong.

The Global Recession

In the twentieth century, economists said, “When America sneezes, the world catches a cold.” In my opinion, that is still true.

If we are indeed heading into a global recession, you can always remind yourself that it is worse elsewhere. The U.S. may start sneezing, but much of the world will have a cold and some countries will catch the flu. Others will have been bombed into the dark ages.

Just be sure to stock up on Kleenex. Metaphorical Kleenex as well as the real stuff.

---

A Note to my Readers

Apologies for varying from my normal M-W-F posts. I am working on several important projects—some prepper related and some from which I derive (or hope to derive) some income—and those projects sometimes delay posts. Believe it or not, each post I make takes at least three hours, and there are days when I need three hours of sleep more than I need to write a post. Please bear with me.

·