As I write this around 10:30 p.m. (Eastern) on 4/18, there is breaking news that Israel is attacking Iran and Syria. It is too early to speculate or separate rumor from fact, but I expect we’ll all know more by morning.
From what I see on Twitter, it looks like they have hit at least seven targets, including possibly some nuclear facilities. I’ve seen reports that Israel is using both aircraft and missiles. Just as the attack on Israel was a first made directly by Iran, this is the first time Israeli planes have directly attacked Iran. If pictures of fireballs are to be believed, it appears their attack is successful than Iran’s.
As I predicted Monday, Israel has escalated rather than “taking the win.” This marks the fourth of five steps to all-out war in the Middle East. I recommend you read that post, if you have not done so.
More when the dust clears.
4/19/24 Update After the Dust has Cleared
IN the light of day, much of the above information appears to have been erroneous and the attack was not as large as first beelived. The U.S. is saying this was a “limited” attack by Israel and the U.S. didn’t participate. Israel is saying nothing, as is often the case. Iran appears to be willing to let it go without a response because little damage was inflicted.
It turns out no Israeli jets were involved, just missiles and possibly drones. Iran claims to have intercepted many and that no damage was done to their nuclear facilities. As far as I have seen, they are not commenting on the air field, which may have been the primary target.
Putting this in perspective, two countries have attacked each other in a manner which may appease their internal critics (or not), but at least they can say they did something. I no further action is taken, we could dial back down the danger of these tit-for-tat attacks escalating into something much larger.
