According to an analysis I conducted this weekend, stocking your prepper pantry costs more than ever. I collected pricing info on a shopping basket of 29 items (from toilet paper and dried beans to Spam and canned fruit) and compared to data collected in January 2021. My analysis also highlighted the strengths and weaknesses of stocking up on food at Amazon.com, Walmart.com, Costco.com and Samsclub.com. Details are presented below.
Inflation Roars
The inflation data is not presented on an annual basis (which is how the government reports it) but simply by comparing prices of items found online on Labor Day compared to the same items at the same store 45 months ago. Here are some of the largest price increases over that period:
- A 106 percent increase in the cost of baking powder, per ounce, at Walmart. At Sam’s Club, the cost was up “only” 61 percent.
- An 81 percent increase in the cost of a 15 oz. can of chili at Walmart.
- A 2-pound brick of dry instant yeast was 80 percent more expensive at Costco and 56 percent more costly at Walmart.
- Powdered milk saw a price jump of 79 percent at Walmart and 50 percent at Amazon.com.
- Sam’s Club raised prices by 72 percent on canned green beans.
- The cost of a packet of ramen noodles was up 67 percent at Sam’s Club. Despite this jump, their ramen was priced the same or less than ramen at the other three stores.
- A 63 percent increase was seen in instant mashed potatoes at Costco.
- Raisins were 63 more expensive at Sam’s Club than they were 45 months ago.
- I saw a 48 percent increase in the cost of 1 pound of spaghetti noodles at Walmart.
Most products on my shopping lists had jumped 20 to 40 percent. Most canned goods, for example, were about 30 percent more expensive today than 45 months ago. The price increases were not limited to food. 33-gallon trash bags were up as much as 37 percent while toilet paper was up 21 percent.
Lowest Prices
The companies that did the best at keeping prices as low as possible were Walmart and Sam’s Club, which saw the cost for the same basket of goods grow 12 and 13 percent, respectively.
Here is how they played out from least to most expensive:
| Sam’s Club | 28 out of 29 items | $75.77* |
| Walmart | All 29 items | $101.40* |
| Amazon.com | All 29 items | $127.41* |
| Costco | Missing 8 items | Impossible to be sure |
*NOTE: These totals are for comparison purposes and will not reflect a true cost at checkout because some item prices were for one ounce even though containers were anywhere from 8 to 64 ounces. However, these totals provide a valid methodology for comparing prices across multiple sizes, brands and store offerings.
Sam’s Club had the lowest price on 17 items and tied for the lowest on two additional products. Walmart was the low-price leader on six products.
Where to Shop
If you want to buy large packages, such as 25-pound bags of four, 25 or 50-pounds of rice, or an 8-pack of Spam, then the club stores are your best bet. If you are making a big purchase to stock up large quantities of goods, Costco or, better yet, Sam’s Club, should be your destination. Amazon is your worst choice for large, heavy products.
Walmart is your best choice if you want to pick up a few items each paycheck because they have smaller quantities and reasonable prices. You can buy a 5-pound bag of rice or a 10-pound bag of flour, but you usually won’t find the 25-pound sizes in Walmart. If you can only afford two or three extra items on a weekly shopping visit, then Walmart is the place to go.
In some cases, store brands were the least expensive option on both Walmart and Amazon.com. For example, buying the Great Value brand of canned lunchmeat at Walmart, instead of Spam, will save money.
Amazon Prices Dropped
Surprisingly, the cost of the shopping basket at Amazon.com dropped from $143.70 in 2021 to $127.41 in 2024, a decline of 11 percent. This is because Amazon’s grocery prices in January 2021 were far higher than the other stores. Despite their drop in prices and the price increases at our other vendors, Amazon is still the most expensive choice. Amazon was the low-price leader only for canned tuna, although it tied with Sam’s Club for the lowest cost for ramen and coconut oil.
Of course, if you live somewhere so rural you can’t visit a store, then Amazon may be your best option, as long as you can stick to items with free shipping.
As Amazon focused more on grocery items after COVID, their prices have become more competitive. They have also launched their own house brand, which is less expensive than brand names like Kraft and Del Monte. Despite this, our price checking shows shopping for prepper pantry items at Amazon.com will still cost you more than shopping at Walmart, Costco, or Sam’s Club.
Selection and Availability
The only item on our shopping list that Sam’s Club didn’t have was lentils. Costco was missing not only lentils but seven other items, including Bush’s Original Baked Beans, canned black beans, canned peaches, canned chili, dried pinto beans and all-purpose flour. Select Costco stores may have these items, but they were not available on Costco.com.
Availability combined with the lower cost for many items means I’ll be placing my last-minute order on Samsclub.com. I like Costco and their Kirkland brand products, but missing prepper staples such as chili, dried beans, and 25-pound bags of flour knocks them down my list.
Methodology
To conduct these price checks, I logged into all four websites (Amazon.com, Walmart.com, Costco.com, and Samsclub.com) and priced individual items in the canned, dried goods, baking and paper products categories on September 2. In five cases, specific brands were specified, such as Quaker Oats Old Fashioned Oatmeal or Jif peanut butter. For all other products, the least expensive brand of the equivalent size was used. Many times, this meant a branded product from a club store was competing with a house brand at Walmart or Amazon.
When a variety of sizes was available, the cost per-pound or per-ounce was used for comparison purposes. When no brand was mentioned, I picked the cheapest product and did the math to make all product weights equal. For example, because baking powder at Walmart was in an eight-ounce container and a 4-pound container at Sam’s Club, pricing was calculated on a per-ounce basis.
Summary
To recap, here’s what we can take away from this research:
- Inflation is real, and in some cases exceeds government estimates.
- If you want to build your prepper pantry with basic canned meats, canned vegetables and fruits, dried goods, and key paper products, Sam’s Club is the best place to go to make bulk purchases. They have the best prices and an excellent selection.
- If your budget means you can only buy a few items per trip, then Walmart is your best bet.
- If you insist on having the lowest cost possible, you must shop around. For example, Jif Peanut butter was far cheaper at Sam’s Club, but Spam was cheapest at Costco.
- Amazon may have a great selection, but their prices are not the best. Heavier items, like large bags of flour and rice, are expensive due to shipping costs. Nevertheless, you can use the Amazon subscription process to save money and to automate repeat purchases.
Now do yourself a favor: take this info and fill or refill your prepper pantry before November.
