Except for a few YouTubers who seem to have a vested interest in getting people hyped up and worried about nuclear war, most of the “world is ending” rhetoric seems to have quieted down since the election concluded.
On the international stage, there appears to be a push for the war in Ukraine to end. (This shows you the impact one election can have.) Despite the appearance of a willingness to make concessions on Ukraine’s part, the war is far from over. Both countries have stepped up air attacks. Expect a burst of aggression and activity as each side tries to improve their position before the peace talks.
Speaking of aggression, the Biden administration just allowed Ukraine to use U.S. missiles to strike deep inside Russia, dimming the chances of an easy peace and showing exactly which party hosts the war hawks. This move appears to have been in response to an increase of Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and/or the presence of North Korea troops in Ukraine. It also is leading to an increase in threats from Russia, which keeps dropping the word “nuclear.” Maybe Team Biden wants Trump to inherit a world that is more radioactive than the one we live in today. Or maybe they just want to make his goal of achieving peace that much more difficult.
Enjoy the calm before the storm, because while the world may be a bit safer, there are still plenty of things to worry about.
War in the Middle East
Before the election, I wrote about the danger of Iran attacking Israel. This danger remains. The only question is if Iran will hold off because they fear Trump or act sooner so they can deal with Biden before Trump is in a position to do anything. They are reportedly “days away” from making nuclear material for us in atomic weapons. This may allow them to make concessions but maintain the ability to produce enough nuclear weapons to destroy Israel.
Iran may also attack Israel during the transition, aiming to stir up trouble and make Trump’s job more difficult.
Meanwhile, Israel has continued success knocking off key militants and leaders from Hamas and Hezbollah. This has created so much pressure that Lebanon and Hezbollah have agreed to a ceasefire. I wonder if Iran’s leaders have stopped to consider they may become targets if they openly go to war with Israel?
Don’t Ignore The Dragon
Even China seems intimidated by Trump’s victory, stating that they look forward to working with Trump to resolve the country’s differences. The last thing they need is another economic hit, and Trump seems primed to deal them an economic body blow. This could be a way of buying time as they continue to build their navy and nuclear arsenal. China has always taken the long view, something the U.S. does not do as well, possibly because we govern in four-year terms.
North Korea seems more likely to attack South Korea today than they have been for years. It will be interesting to see if they dial back the threats. They had a pretty decent relationship with Trump, which led to a period of calm. Will that era return, or will the north be emboldened by its new relationship with Russia and Iran?
At some point, historians will need to determine which president’s policies Iran and North Korea resulted in them becoming the weapons makers of the new Evil Empire. That might tarnish a reputation or two. (Hear that, Barrack?)
The Economy7
While the stock market initially soared on Trump’s election, it then gave back some winnings because of what the Fed did. Of course, it is a mistake to equate the stock market performance with the economy. GDP is a better broad measure, while consumer confidence is also important.
Paycheck purchasing power is a better measure of the economy’s health. Inflation numbers are holding steady or ticking upward rather than continuing to drop, and there is some concern that while Trump’s plans for tariffs could harm the economy in the short term before the larger long-term benefits are felt. In addition, the federal debt just passed $36 trillion dollars, another drag on the economy.
As any Democrat will tell you, Trump won by running on the economy, even though “it’s not that bad.” If that is truly their opinion, then they have spent too much time reading their own press releases. The people in grocery store lines and unemployment offices would beg to differ.
While the Biden Administration will claim it has created millions of new jobs, data shows that many of these were either part-time jobs (often the second or third part-time job for an individual who cannot get a full-time job) or jobs that went to illegal aliens. Combined with the tech and manufacturing layoffs and bankruptcies of large retailers, restaurant chains, and small businesses, the Biden administration had a negative impact on the job market.
Oh, and did I mention that the Biden Administration has a habit of publishing glowing data only to revise it downwards months later? Yes, they faked results and lied about the economy.
In short, the election has not entirely erased the danger of a recession. Inflation is not yet behind us.
On the Domestic Front
In the U.S., there has been a surprising lack of protests—at least so far. Oh, the media is protesting Trump’s personnel choices, the woke generals in the Pentagon are afraid they will lose their jobs, and the DOJ is reportedly in full-on panic mode, but the streets remain calm, so far. (I don’t count bitter women who shave their heads in protest as a threat.) I’m not sure if this is because Trump won by such a commanding lead or if it is an even larger majority was not all that comfortable with the idea of Kamala Harris being president. Even Joe Biden seems gleeful she lost.
The red wave may reduce government overreach and cut back on censorship and other infringements on your God-given rights. We should see a reduction in the power to cancel people and the woke policies of the left. Recent Supreme Court decisions may help curtail the power of unelected officials and officious bureaucrats. Trump may scale back or even eliminate some agencies, or at least change their goals. This could be good for the economy, the country, and individual citizens. With any luck, it should make your life better, or at least easier.
New laws, new district attorneys, and the expulsion of criminal aliens may eventually reduce violent crime, but it’s going to take a few years to see the shift.
One thing Trump has promised, or at least implied, is prosperity for all. That’s nice, and I’d welcome it, but not everyone will be prosperous. It is nice to think a rising tide will lift all boats, but there are those who refuse to let out more anchor line or who sink their own ships in anger. Someone will always be left behind, but there is no reason for that to be you. Embrace the opportunity rather than sinking yourself.
Time to Regroup
So what is a prepper to do while the danger of war, unrest, global crisis, and financial collapse seem to be diluted, or at least postponed? Take advantage of the quiet to catch your breath. Regroup, take inventory, restock, re-evaluate your plans, and have a family or group meeting. Fill in your blank spots, replenish anything you used, and decide where to go and what to do next.
If you decide you need a break, slow your rate of preps, but don’t abandon prepping. There is no problem with dialing back your spending and paying off some bills, but don’t think the election makes you or the economy bulletproof. Sh*t can still hit the fan any day. No election can stop a natural disaster. Iran and North Korea remain loose cannons. We are still closer to nuclear war than we were four years ago. Stay frosty.
