When I learned President Trump was definitely raising tariffs to 25 percent on Canada and Mexico, the first thing I did was to go out, fill my gas tank and the two empty gasoline cans I had on hand. The second thing I did was to buy the six treated 2×6’s and other lumber I need for a project.
I took these steps because I think it is possible the tariffs will raise the price of both gasoline and lumber because we import both from Canada.
You know what I didn’t do? I didn’t panic because despite the wailing and gnashing of teeth, this is neither the end of the world nor evidence that Trump is off his rocker. What you are hearing is the last gasp of a dying system that will soon be replaced with a better one. Will the better one lead us to a golden age, as Trump promises? I don’t know, but I’m betting it will be a damn sight better than the morass in which we have been stuck.
Buckle Up, Buttercup
Tariffs could be inflationary, but there is a strong likelihood that they won’t last. The current tariffs are being used to show the world that Trump isn’t bluffing.
Threats of more tariffs to come are being used as a slap across the face to wake the world up to the new U.S. way of thinking. The president is trying to shake our traditional allies out of their stupor while warning our enemies that there is a new sheriff in town. Trump is all about the art of the deal, and countries have a good chance of negotiating tariffs down, or away, if they offer Trump what he wants.
Tariffs are going to be disruptive, but that is by design. Trump is creating doubt, uncertainty, fear, and even chaos. He is taking bold steps, getting well inside the Democrat’s OODA loop, and daring the courts or congress to stop him. They may well do so, but it will take time, and they won’t be able to stop everything on his agenda. While the liberals celebrate their small victories, Trump will continue to work around them, shaking up Washington and the world.
The Global Stage
The threat to buy Greenland and to take back the Panama Canal are additional examples of Trump disrupting the world order and keeping our friends and enemies unsettled. You should realize Trump is opening negotiations with a high bid but will settle for less. He may be happy with permission to put missiles and military bases on Greenland and to reduce the role of the Chinese in Panama. But woe to tiny countries that try to call his bluff. He already stomped on Columbia, and I doubt his intimidation and threats will end there. Better to compromise than to get run over roughshod.
The tariffs are not the only thing that will be disruptive. Many of Trump’s policies, including decisions not to fund NGOs and to stop foreign aid, are going to throw a portion of the world economy into disarray. There will be anger, blame, and handwringing both here and abroad. There may be protests and violence. I expect there will be appeals to the UN and international courts, neither of which will bother Trump. In the end, there will be a realization of just how important the U.S. is and how too many countries have been taking our largess for granted.
On the domestic front, Trump is cutting back on those areas of the government that need trimming by cutting off their life blood: money. Just as an apple tree is more efficient when you prune its excess branches, so will government be more efficient when it has been trimmed down in size.
Crazy Like a Fox
While most of the leftist talking heads, the former intelligence experts, and the Foggy Bottom alumni think Trump is acting crazy, they don’t realize he is crazy like a fox. Trump wants to turn the system upside down. He wants to shake things up, to knock woke and the weak out of the system. When he achieves a state of chaos, he will be in a position to set things right. The new system will be made to his liking. Like moving out of a home you have lived in for years, it will be an opportunity to de-clutter the government and start over with less baggage.
It’s a brilliant strategy. Gutsy, too.
His immigration crackdown is also part of this process. He is using it to disrupt the old system, to focus attention and outrage on deporting illegal immigrants while he makes other moves. It doesn’t hurt that it appeases his base and makes good on his election promise. Meanwhile, the daily announcements of how many were arrested and deported distract people from the other changes he is making to the government.
Prepare for Disruption
Assuming you are not work or an illegal immigrant, all you and I need to do is to wait it out. Don’t get too upset, and don’t let the cries of alarm you hear from the mainstream media shake you up. Chances are, things will be resolved and start to settle down by summer. We may have some short-term inflation or see gas prices tick up, but it won’t last. In a year or so, the U.S. will be in a stronger position globally, the economy will be better, and I expect the war in Ukraine to be effectively over.
The biggest danger is to your job if you work in an area that is considered woke, green, or liberal. If so, update your resume and prepare for the possibility that you may become unemployed. If you work for a company that is in an industry Trump does not favor, consider switching to one he does. Use this as an opportunity to reinvent yourself, just as Trump is reinventing the government.
When asked why he robbed banks, Willie Sutton said, “Because that’s where the money is.” So look for a job in industries where the jobs are going to be. Oil, crypto currency, manufacturing, and technology come to mind. Anything in business, from marketing to project management for finance, will be hiring soon. Just stay away from positions that can be eliminated by AI. In any case, there are always jobs available in healthcare, trucking, and the skilled trades.
If that fails, look in areas of the market that employ large numbers of people who may be illegal immigrants, and you will probably find they are hiring.
Video of the Day
Despite the panic, there are businesses that have planned for tariffs. Here’s a video from CNBC that takes a rational look at front-end loading and how tariffs will affect different companies.
