Seven nuclear-capable B-2 stealth bombers from the U.S. Airforce are now stationed in Diego Garcia, a British military base we lease in the Indian Ocean. A fleet of tankers, cargo planes, and fighter jets accompanied them. Another aircraft carrier is steaming towards the Middle East to add yet more offensive capacity.
While these planes could be there as a threat to the Houthis, that might just be an excuse to position them close to Iran. The U.S. attacks on the Houthis could also be a training exercise for attacks on Iran, a warning to Iran, or both.
The U.S. has offered to negotiate with Iran, but the carrot came with a stick. They threatened Iran, warning that “all options are on the table” if they do not give up their nuclear weapons program. This came days after U.S. STRATCOM reported Iran could produce weapons grade uranium in less than a week.
I’ve also heard reports that Russia has warned Iran that the U.S. is planning an attack. Of course, we warned Ukraine, and they didn’t listen. Will Iran listen to Russia or recognize the signals the U.S. is sending? If so, will they back down or press forward?
My guess is they are too stubborn to back down.
Iran Attack Consequences
What would happen in the U.S. attacked Iran? It would depend on how thoroughly the attack is, how much of their command and control they can take out, how many of their civilian and military leaders are left alive afterwards, and how successful we are at knocking out Iranian nuclear facilities and missile bunkers. The B-2 bombers are there to drop deep penetrating bunker-buster bombs on underground facilities where Iran stores its rockets and missiles.
In a best-case scenario, a decapitation strike could cause regime change, or at least a change of heart, but the best-case scenario is not the most likely.
It’s important to remember, when the U.S. says something about “all options are on the table,” the implication means that nuclear weapons could be used. That would be the worst-case scenario.
If one or both countries turn to nuclear weapons and Iran targets a U.S. carrier, military base in Europe, the homeland or Israel with nuclear missiles, then it will get bad. If Iran uses, or attempts to use, nuclear weapons, I expect that would trigger a U.S. nuclear retaliation that kills tens of millions, destroys most military targets, and makes large swaths of the country look like Gaza, but with radiation added.
The most likely scenario is somewhere in between. An attack, if it comes, will start at night and have some element of surprise, but it will last for days. It could even start with sneak attacks on “secret” facilities by troops, much like Israel attacked a missile factory in Syria. Or drones could slip inside Iranian weapons bunkers and blow them up from the inside.
The air attack will be led by the U.S., but will likely include attacks by Israel because they will want to get their licks in. Other countries might also take part, both for practice and so they can say they did. Countries that don’t join in might give Israel or the U.S. permission to fly through their airspace. This will have the added benefit of making it look like an attack on Iran had international support. Iran will try to fight back, but every time they pull a few missiles out of a tunnel, the U.S. will destroy them, either in the air or on the ground, and blow up the tunnel entrance.
Repercussions
What happens in the U.S. if we attack Iran will depend on what happens over there, but at the very least you can expect:
- Gasoline prices to soar, and then slowly moderate. This is why I recommend you fill your spare gasoline tanks and keep your vehicle tank at least half full.
- The stock markets will drop, possibly by double digits, because of fear and uncertainty. If things go well, this could be followed by a rebound that reaches or exceeds pre-war levels.
- Gold, which hit a new high on Thursday, will shoot up because it is considered a safe haven investment. It will retreat when things calm down, but we’ll have to wait and see if it drops below $3,000. Silver, which jumped 2.5 percent on Thursday, will also jump.
- The Democrats and socialists will squawk and complain about the attack. Few outside their sycophants in the mainstream media will listen and fewer still will care.
- The same folks supporting Hamas will probably launch protests supporting Iran.
- China, Russia and/or the North Koreans could launch cyberattacks on the U.S. to support Iran without being obvious about it. Prepare for these by having cash on hand and your batteries charged in case they target the grid or the internet.
If the attacks go well and Iran capitulates or is defeated, the U.S. will look much stronger and Trump will be feared even more than he is today. This could help impose peace in Ukraine and might cause China to wait until after he is no longer in office to attack Taiwan. Some of the harm done by the rapid and badly executed withdrawal from (or abandonment of) Afghanistan under Biden will be reversed. It will also rewrite the future of the Middle East.
There is a risk, of course. The U.S. could get a black eye, or suffer significant losses, which could hurt its reputation and cause political problems at home for Trump. If the war remains an air war, that is unlikely.
It Could be Worse
If you think the prospect of a war in the Middle East is bad, keep in mind that much of Europe seems to be trying to start a war with Russia. Although unprepared, lacking solidarity, and with limited military budgets, several European countries are talking big and trying to drag their neighbors into what could become another continental war, if not a world war. All the Frenchmen who had first-hand experience in the last war must have died because Macron appears to be leading the charge.
Poland and the Baltics are preparing for defensive reasons. The same can’t be said for the countries a little further east that can use Ukraine and Poland as a buffer. But if Germany could fire V-1 flying bombs at London and Antwerp, no part of Europe will be safe from Russian missiles. And they’ll be more accurate and destructive than the V-2 ballistic missiles the Nazis launched.
While European leaders wonder why the American president wants peace in Ukraine, the rest of the world wonders why the European Union wants to keep fighting in Ukraine.
How I am Preparing
I feel the ongoing threat of a wildfires in my area are more of an immediate threat to me and mine than a war with Iran. Other than making sure all the gas tanks of my small engines and my vehicles stay full, I am not doing anything special to prep. This is because I am already prepped. If you are not, then what are you waiting for?
