Do you remember what it was like when the supply chain was all screwed up because of the pandemic and the lockdowns and business closures? I suggest you learn from that experience to prepare for the supply chain problems and price increases we may see because of the tariffs. While some 50 countries have already asked to negotiate away their tariffs, expect the financial disruption caused by last week’s announcement to potentially last for months. Prep now to minimize its impact on your life and wallet.
Keep in mind that more than just finished goods come from overseas. We import metals, raw materials, unfinished goods, parts, packaging, fiber, wood, and many other things.
The good news is that anything already on a ship will not be tariffed. Only items that ship after the 8th are subject to reciprocal tariffs, and most of those goods won’t arrive here for a month and will take longer to reach store shelves. That gives ample time for countries to negotiate and lower their tariffs and for you time to do some shopping before companies adapt and raise prices.
Last week in the post on tariffs I said you shouldn’t panic. I’m not panicking, but I am acting thoughtfully and strategically to anticipate my future needs and acting now to save a few bucks. If there is anything on your radar for your prepping needs, consider front-loading your purchases to beat the price increase.
Think of it like buying a couple 36-packs of toilet paper at Costco the week before COVID made people panic. Prepping means being ahead of the curve.
Things I Bought
I suggested to my wife that we get a few things we might need later in the year before the prices jump. She placed an order on Amazon, and I bought the following from various tactical outlets:
- Two pairs of my favorite pants, the Tru-Spec Vector Pro. These are great in all but the coldest weather, and I could use some new tactical pants. I don’t know where these are made, but I know they are not made in the USA.
- An 18-pack of lithium AA batteries, which are made in Singapore.
- 1,000 rounds of Winchester 115 grain 9mm ammo. Lots of ammo is imported into the United States, but even if these are made here, who knows where the brass and lead comes from? Plus, at 21 cents per round ($10.49 for 50 rounds) this is a remarkably low price. I’ve been using 100 or more rounds with every range session, so this is just topping me off for another six months of practice.
- A single box of Hornady 115 grain Critical Defense 9mm ammo, which is my carry ammo. Just one box because I don’t shoot the good stuff very often. Besides, it costs more than $1 a round.
- 200 rounds of Lawman 230 grain .45 ammo. This was more expensive than the 9mm, but it uses twice as much lead and brass, so I can understand.
- A weapons-mounted light suitable for an AR-15 or other weapon with an M-Lok fore end. I have considered weapons lights to be an item I could use more of for some time, and I know it is made in China, so I decided to act. I expect prices to go up. Maybe not in a week, but in a quarter or two.
Possible Future Purchases
Another item I considered is a set of merino wool long underwear. I wore my two sets of merino wool thermals quite a bit this winter, especially in January. They are at least ten years old. Wwool is durable and wears very well, but I could use a new pair. I also know the wool is imported from New Zealand, so I expect the cost will rise. But spending $150 on thermals in April seems like a waste. They aren’t even on sale. I held off, at least for now.
By the way, I have worn silk, polyester, polypropylene, military-surplus grid fleece, and other thermals, and in my opinion, merino wool beats them all. If you can stand the feel of wool against your skin, I recommend them.
A couple of weeks ago, I lost the 1,000 lumen tactical flashlight I carried daily. I had it when I went to bed, but by late morning the next day, it was missing from my pocket. I had a spare, and I am carrying it, but now I need a new spare. This vendor has occasional sales, so I will wait for one and then buy a new light. I also may get another spare headlamp. They proved very useful after Helene, and I wear one every night when I walk the dog. It is always good to have another spare, or two.
I may order some bee supplies, especially bottles for honey. No idea if the jars are made domestically or not. The quart jars are so expensive now I am considering using canning jars to save a few dollars.
We may also buy more coffee and chocolate, two of the imported foods we consume.
Automobiles
Neither of us are planning to buy a vehicle, but my daughter wants a new car (or at least one new to her). I called her and recommended she act quickly. If new-car prices increase, I expect used cars will follow. Will she act quickly? I doubt it, but she has been forewarned.
No doubt side-by-sides and four-wheelers will be affected by tariffs. The question is, will the used market be hurt in a recession or stagflation? Will more used UTVs end up on the market as people try to raise funds? I will continue to keep my eyes and ears open. The last used Polaris Ranger I looked into turned out to be a scammer who tried to get me to send him a payment up front.
Speaking of used items, pawn shops often have an overflow of goods during an economic downturn. This can make them more willing to negotiate on prices. When that happens, it can be a good time to pick up a used chainsaw, power tool, musical instrument, game console, or firearm.
Neither of our vehicles need new tires, but both still have our original batteries, which are closing in on five years old. Good things to stock up on before prices jump.
Things to Consider
Besides the things I picked up, specifically clothing and ammunition, I have some other recommendations for preppers or just anyone who wants to stay ahead of the curve and save a few bucks.
If you need or want anything electronic, get it while you still can. This includes new phones, tablets or laptops, anything related to drones, headphones, earbuds, GPS units, security cameras, etc. Firearm related electronics, like popular red dots, are also made in Asia.
If you were planning to get a solar generator, whole-home solar power system, or anything else related to solar power or battery storage, lock in your pricing now. Most of this stuff is made in China.
My long-time readers know how important I think it is to have spare footwear. I have two unopened pairs of boots in my closet now, one of which has a safety toe. If you don’t, it might be worth buying a spare pair of rugged work or hiking boots. Very little footwear is made in the U.S., and footwear prices shot up during the pandemic.
Most anything sold at a dollar store, craft store, or even Walmart, except for food, is not made in the USA. Buy kids’ toys and children’s clothing in advance, if you can afford to do so.
The same goes for tools. Whether you are buying from Harbor Freight or Home Depot, Lowes or Ace Hardware, most of these items are made overseas. Building supplies might not be, but they could still be affected by raw material costs.
If you use large quantities of over-the-counter medications or health and beauty aids, consider stocking up. Many drugs and drug ingredients, both OTC and prescription, are made overseas.
Prepping Supplies
If you need camping, bush crafting, or other outdoor gear, unless you buy premium brands, these items are made overseas and will see price increases if the tariffs last. Tactical gear is in the same boat. Sure, you can get gear made domestically, but it’s hard to justify the added expense if you only wear it for LARPing.
The same goes for winter clothing and outerwear. If you wait until the fall to buy new camouflage bibs or a jacket, any impact of tariffs will already be here.
Freeze-dried food from U.S. manufacturers is unlikely to see much impact form the tariffs because most of the larger companies serving our industry are based in the U.S. and most of the ingredients are from the U.S. However, we don’t know where they get there #10 cans or where their can supplier gets its raw materials. If you are buying MREs from a military supplier, they will also be U.S. made.
While you can get long grain rice grown in Texas, if you want jasmine or basmati rice, it will be imported. Properly packaged for long-term storage, rice lasts forever, so why not stock up?
Approximately 30 percent of firearms sold in the United States are imported. Tariffs for a gun made in Austria or Germany will be 20 percent. A good reason to buy American.
I have purchased a good bit of European military surplus over the years, everything from wool pants and socks to German lanterns and British commando sweaters. Sure, it is surplus, but it will still get tariffed.
Lots of inexpensive generators are made in Asia. If you need one, act soon. The tariff on a $500 generator is going to hit your wallet far harder than the tariff on a $50 shirt.
Inflation, Deflation or Stagflation
It seems like the pundits and the media can’t decide if we are headed for inflation, deflation, stagflation, a recession, or more than one. Let’s hope for deflation, although it might be combined with a recession. Deflation will mean your dollar will be worth more and prices will drop, followed by interest rates. The country could use both.
Keep in mind that we have not seen the end of this story. Heck, it hasn’t even been a week since the announcement. Once a few deals with countries like Vietnam, the third largest source for U.S. imports, are announced, the stock market could reverse itself. So could the price of silver, which has recovered from last week’s low as I write this on Sunday night.
You’ll notice I didn’t buy any food. If I was worried, I’ve had purchased food and chicken feed!
Related Article
According to this article, “Vietnam has offered to remove all tariffs on US imports after Donald Trump announced a 46% levy on the Southeast Asian nation, according to an April 5 letter from Vietnam’s communist party.” Taiwan also said it would offer zero tariffs as it negotiates with the U.S. for remove reciprocal tariffs. Fifty countries have reportedly expressed an interest in negotiating, so once one country comes out with a better deal, expect more to line up.
