I’ve been reading multiple articles in which people seek to point fingers and find someone to blame for the deaths related to recent flooding in Texas.
Democrats blamed Trump’s cuts to the National Weather Service. When that proved to be untrue, they turned to blaming his cuts to green energy programs, most of which have not even happened yet. Then they turned to blaming weather manipulation and cloud-seeding operations. Finally, they blamed local officials, claiming they didn’t start evacuations soon enough.
Having been through a similar scenario, I can tell you what deserves the blame: normalcy bias.
For example, we had lived through hurricanes before, so we weren’t worried about Helene. We went to bed the night Helene hit, knowing our house had survived more than 15 years of bad weather and would no doubt do so again. Then the unexpected happened, and a landslide woke us up at 4:30 in the morning.
Quotes from counselors and camp officials in Texas show they considered it to be “just another storm.” The camp had survived plenty of storms. Why should this one be any difference? Unfortunately, it was.
It is human nature to expect things to be the same as they have always been. It is also why the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel was a surprise. No one expected terrorists to fly in on paragliders because it had never been done before. It is also why no one expected Israeli airplanes to attack Iran—because they had never done so before.
The same reasoning explains why Russia bombers fly near Alaska and China launches planes heading towards Taiwan. They want the defenders to get used to it so they are not alarmed when there is a genuine attack.
Overcoming Normalcy Bias
Normalcy bias causes people to underestimate the likelihood of a disaster. The opposite of normalcy bias is not paranoia, but situational awareness. It is not overreacting, but having a Plan B in case things do not go as expected. To overcome normalcy bias, you must challenge your assumptions.
For example, we do not evacuate every time we have a heavy rain (and we’ve had some), but we do monitor for future landslides. We placed bales of hay in strategic locations to redirect water and also built a barrier to prevent a landslide from hitting the house. We are working with forestry services to see what else can be done to minimize or redirect the next landslide, whether it happens in 2 months or 20 years.
As a prepper, it was embarrassing to be caught off guard. We were not unprepared, so we managed fine, but we were not prepared for this specific disaster. We did not think the road would wash out, stranding us. I did not park a vehicle in a safer location, although we will in the future. We did not have a side-by-side that can navigate roads and terrain our 4WD vehicles cannot, but we do now.
Locals warned us this hollow (or holler) was known for heavy snow, and there was one particular blizzard where people were trapped for 30 days. Based on these stories, we planned accordingly. Although we haven’t yet been snowed in for more than six days, we know it is a possibility.
No one warned us about landslides because there had never been one here before, at least not while someone lived here. (If a rock slides on a mountain and no one is there to see it, is it considered a landslide?) We had thought about it casually, but never seriously. Big mistake.
Complacency
Complacency is a close cousin to normalcy bias. You can overcome complacency by being vigilant (situational awareness again) and staying prepared.
Generally, preppers are not complacent, but feeling safe and secure, comfortable in the world and your place in it can lead to complacency and normalcy bias.
At our old house, which was closer to the coast, and where we had lived through multiple hurricanes, we had a list of things we did whenever a hurricane was predicted. After we moved to a place hurricanes traditionally had less impact and are unlikely to reach, we paid less attention to the list. We still picked up things that might blow around, secured items on the deck, and made sure our batteries were all charged, but we didn’t fill our empty gas cans, buy chicken feed, or make one last run to the grocery store. Our failure made us feel stupid after Helene hit.
Today, our gas cans are not only full, we have twice as many. I also have 11 bags of chicken feed on a pallet in the garage, twice what we had when Helene hit. We’re trying to avoid complacency and fight normalcy bias by upping our preps and checking them twice.
The question is, in eight or ten years, will we still have full cans, charged batteries, and plenty of chicken feed? Or will we think to ourselves, “This storm doesn’t look like Helene. I’m sure we’ll be fine.”
Laziness
It is easy to be complacent; it doesn’t take any effort at all. Normalcy bias is also easy. Why get worked up about something that hasn’t happened for years and probably won’t? Complacency, like laziness, is so darn easy. It takes no effort to do nothing.
It’s always easier to put something off until tomorrow, or to use a little rain as an excuse to stay indoors. I know there are times I have to intentionally get up rather than let myself sit on the couch and do something useless like watch too much YouTube. Avoiding complacency and laziness takes effort. Having a hobby, like beekeeping, makes combatting laziness easier. So does making a to-do list and checking things off.
The Antidote
I am convinced actively prepping is the antidote for normalcy bias, complacency, and laziness, but only if you stay true to your prepper principles. Be prepared to the best of your financial and geographic abilities. Have a plan and tackle it in small bites so you can accomplish it over time. If you find something prepping-related you like—whether it is shooting, first aid, gardening, mushroom hunting, or making soap—embrace it and become an expert. Follow your strengths, but don’t ignore your weaknesses.
Most of all, never think, “That can’t happen.” Instead, think, “That’s unlikely, but we’ll prep for it just in case.” It really is better safe than sorry. Challenge your assumptions. Have a Plan B. Don’t assume things will be OK because they have been so far. Things change.
OK, that’s enough sitting on my rear end typing. The rain has stopped, so I’m going to get off my lazy butt and build some beehive stands. What are you doing to fight complacency?
