Ever since Russian drones were shot down over Poland, talk of WWIII has escalated, but this was no Pearl Harbor and is unlikely to result in war. If anything, it was a probe, a subtle reminder from Russia that they could attack Poland. Not that they will, just that they could. You know, if they wanted to.
It will be interesting to see if Poland responds. For example, they could take out the launch sites or, if they want to send a harsher message, sink a ship in Russia’s shadow fleet, preferably in a way that cannot be traced back to a specific perpetrator. A strong response will send a message. A weak response might encourage another “accidental” attack.
It’s a long leap from a few drones that were likely conducting a test of Polish air defenses to nuclear war. If Russia were to do something that launched World War III, chances are they would start with a much larger attack. The odds that Russia will attack Poland are low because they are having enough trouble subduing Ukraine and don’t need a fresh enemy army rushed to the front lines. Besides, the Russians know they would get their asses kicked by NATO airpower. Nonetheless, Poland is moving 40,000 troops to the Belarus border, just in case the upcoming Russian and Belarus war games are cover for an invasion. That’s a smart move.
Meanwhile, the drones may have exposed a weakness in Poland’s aerial defense. Thanks to Patriot missile systems, the Poles are no doubt in good shape for shooting down ballistic missiles and enemy planes, but need to improve their defense against small, inexpensive drones like those used to attack Ukraine. Hopefully, Ukraine can give them some lessons.
NATO Response
Poland has called a NATO meeting, and we’ll see some harsh language, threats, and possible sanctions as a result, but a direct military response is unlikely. I expect more weapons will be sent to Ukraine, perhaps on a sped-up schedule. Countries on a future front line, like Poland and the Baltic States, will use this as motivation to increase their preparedness. Maybe it will motivate countries farther from the front, like Spain, to step up their military spending.
For now, war in or with Venezuela seems like a greater possibility than direct U.S. involvement with war in Russia. I’m far less worried about war with Venezuela than with Russia.
Increasing Tensions
Closer to home, the assassination of Charlie Kirk has the potential to spark further violence. We’ve all heard about the straw that broke the camel’s back; now we have to wait and see if this is the straw that breaks the frozen state of détente between the extreme portions of the right and the left or if it will just fade into the background.
Regardless that he was in favor or talking rather than killing, I wouldn’t be surprised if A) some misguided fools on the left are motivated by this attack and want to emulate it and B) if some small group on the right decide to extract a bit of revenge by targeting a leftist or two. I would hope members of the squad and visible figures like Governor Newsome have security in place.
It’s always nice when older, wiser heads prevail, but today’s youth are by definition neither. Too many have never been told no, lack common sense, and think that life is what they see on their phones or do in their video games. That’s a recipe for recklessness.
Keep your head up and don’t stare at your phone; be aware of your surroundings and what is going on around you. Trouble can strike at any time. If it does, get out if you can, fight back if you can’t.
Preparedness Levels
How are your preparedness levels? This might be a good time to:
Take a look at the food in your prepper pantry. Move items close to expiration into your main kitchen and make plans to eat them before year end. Replace these items with new purchases, adding more if necessary. For example, if you used up all the black beans but none of the baked beans, then increase the number of black beans you stock.
Check the OTC meds you have on hand. As flu season approaches and COVID rears its ugly head again, make sure you have products to treat colds, flu, and coughs. Your medicine cabinet should also contain current products to treat allergic reactions, diarrhea, constipation, and to sterilize and bandage cuts and abrasions. Some common ointments like antibiotic ointment, hydrocortisone for itches or stings, anti-fungal, and maybe something for baby’s diaper rash are also good to have on hand.
Do you store water? Time to check it and rotate it out if it is a year old. If it is commercially bottled water, drink it up and buy more to replace it. If you fill your own containers, pour them out, rinse them with a mild Clorox solution, and refill them. Don’t worry if there’s a bit of residual Clorox in the bottle when you refill it.
Are you ready for the winter? Do you need any warm clothes or bedding? What is your alternate heat source, and do you have sufficient fuel on hand? Do you know where the water shutoff is if you need to drain your pipes to prevent them from freezing and bursting during a power outage? Are you prepared for a power outage?
Ready for Anything
A good prepper is ready for anything. War. Insurrection. Madness in the streets. Political violence. Martial law. A late-summer hurricane. An ice storm or blizzard. A multi-day power outage.
It’s never too late to review your EDC, your car survival kit, and check any personal weapons. If you feel the tension, go a little heavy. Whatever you think the future may hold, your best bet is to prep before it gets here.
