As I write this around 10:30 p.m. Sunday, the price of gold is $3,923.30, a record high. That’s up more than $200 or about 6 percent since my post on precious metals two weeks ago (September 22). Meanwhile, the spot price of silver is now $48.35, having closed Friday over $48. That’s about a $5 increase, or more than 11 percent, during those same two-weeks.
Look at it this way: a one-ounce gold coin and 100 ounces of silver would have been worth $8,000 two weeks ago. Today, those same coins are worth $8,760—not a bad profit in two weeks. Now imagine if you had 10 gold coins and 1,000 silver ones. You would have made $7,600. Of course, it’s only a paper profit until you sell.
I’m no expert (see my disclaimer at the bottom of the article), but I predict silver hits $50 an ounce this week, reaching an all-time record while gold breaks $4,000. Things just seem to have reached the point where the momentum will carry us upwards with limited pullbacks. We may see down days, but I predict the trend will be upward until something political changes. If that change is war with anyone other than Venezuela, then precious metals will take off.
It’s possible that resolving the shutdown could cause precious metals to consolidate their gains and enter brief holding pattern, but once the government economic data is released again, they could resume their upward climb.
Junk Silver
I don’t have a lot of junk silver, but bought $100 face for about $1,500 in October 2023. Now, two years later, it’s value has doubled. Originally, I was planning to keep these in secure storage for use after the SHTF, but the idea of turning a quick profit is hard to resist. I am not selling, at least not yet. Instead, I will wait until silver hits at least $70, whether that is later this year, next year, or many years down the road. At that point, I may sell half of it and then hold the rest, either for the end of the world or an economic collapse.
For every dollar of face value you have in dimes, quarters and half dollars minted before 1965—which are commonly known as junk silver or constitutional silver—you have about $35 in silver. So if you have rolls of dimes, they have $175 worth of silver in them, while a roll of quarters is worth $350. (Keep in mind this will fluctuate as the price of silver changes, and your dealer my not buy them at spot.)
In 1980 and then again in 2011, silver shot up to $50 and then pulled back. If I could sell for $70 or even $100 and then buy the silver back at $30 six months or a year later, I would feel clever. If silver kept going up and peaked near $200, I’d feel stupid, but leaving money on the table is different from losing your principal. It’s the people who buy at $100 and sell at $70 who are the big losers.
Sell When Things Get Frothy
Right now, people who have old or broken jewelry are cashing in on the high price of gold, but the public is not buying gold coins. I suspect they are just too expensive. Like I said before, the demand is coming from central banks in places like Poland and China.
Gold is also not attracting much attention in the mainstream media. My guess is that this is because the bankers and the wealthy want to buy gold now and then sell it at a higher price. If consumers rush to buy it, the price will rise too fast.
You’ll know the peak is coming soon when your Uber driver tells you he bought silver, or when your sister-in-law, who knows nothing about investing, talks about investing in precious metals. That’s the time to cash out. When it gets frothy like that and the retail investors pour into the market, the serious money leaves. That would be the best time for me to bail out. Sure, the market may continue to go up, but when everyone is excited about the price of precious metals, the end will be coming soon. Because just as what goes up must come down, bubbles eventually pop. I’d rather leave $10 an ounce on the table while making $35 than lose $30 an ounce because I was slow to act.
Bitcoin is up, Too
Early Sunday, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high. As I write this, it is $124,050, but less than 24 hours ago, I saw it at $125,373, meaning it would take more than 31 ounces of gold to buy one bitcoin. Is this reasonable? I’m the wrong person to ask, but for prepping purposes I prefer a coin I can put my hands on, even when the power is out, or the internet is offline. That’s why junk silver is considered by many to be the currency of choice during TEOTWAWKI.
The heady prices of Bitcoin and precious metals may be a warning. But of what? Inflation? War? Social unrest? The federal debt? A distrust of the dollar? All of the above? Who knows. Gold may be the historic safe haven, but bitcoin appears to be the new haven for the digital era. Whether it will prove successful in filling that role in a collapse remains to be seen. Meanwhile, that they are both rising means people are worried, and that means you should be prepping.
Next weekend, I plan to go to a gun show a couple of hours away. If so, we’ll see how pricing is on the other precious metals—brass, lead and copper. I’ll be looking for subsonic .300 blackout and subsonic .22LR, plus a holster. Despite people being worried, ammunition prices remain at recent lows.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, accountant, economist, tax professional, lawyer or precious metals expert, so do not consider this financial or legal advice. I am simply a well-educated prepper relaying my personal beliefs established over more than 30 years of prepping experience. Do your own research and consider consulting a financial professional to assist you with your financial decisions.
