Two weeks ago, gold shot up to $3,600 an ounce and then backed down. This Friday, it crossed $3,700 before closing just a hair under.
On Sept. 1, I wrote that silver blasted through the $40 benchmark for the first time in 14 years. On Friday, closed at $43.13, according to my Kitco app. It soared $1.27 that day, more than three percent. A roll of pre-1965 quarters now has more than $300 worth of silver in it. That means a handful of change from 1964 is now worth thirty times as much.
And we wonder why things are so expensive.
Even when Trump signed an executive order stating gold, including gold bars and gold coins, is not subject to tariffs, precious metals continued to rise rather than relax. For much of August, silver was rising faster than gold, which we saw again on Friday. But the price of both are growing in leaps and bounds, and no one knows how high they will go.
There are many potential reasons for the surge in precious metal pricing, but I think the biggest reason is the continued purchases of gold by central banks.
EDIT: 4 p.m. Eastern Time 9/22/25: In the 16 hours since this article was posted, gold is up $63 and silver rose $1 to cross $44.
Rising Faster
Gold has increased about 41 percent so far this year. Silver us up 50 percent. Even considering their performance over the past couple of years, that’s a shocking rate of return. Less than a year ago, silver was trading for under $30. Today is trading for more than $40. This leads to projections of $50 silver and $4,000 gold by year-end, with some projections even higher.
When gold was $500 an ounce, a 40 percent increase would push it to $700. Now that gold is $3,700, another 40 percent increase will push it up to $5,200. This explains why gold seems to be rising so rapidly.
Gold is up more than 200 percent in the past 10 years. If it duplicates that in the next 10 years, it would be about $11,000 an ounce. I’m not suggesting this is likely, only that it is possible. Whether it hits that level in two years or ten is another question I can’t answer, only that it now seems much more likely to do so than anyone would have thought five years ago.
If you own gold, that may sound like a windfall. A nice, secure investment that triples every decade would make us wealthy. Assuming of course that the dollar doesn’t lose its value. due to inflation.
Gold versus Dollars
Since the end of World War II, the dollar has served as the primary reserve currency for the world, and many countries kept much of their sovereign wealth in dollars. Owning dollars allowed them to take part in international trade and buy petroleum, which was traded in dollars. Many countries invested their reserves or surpluses in Treasury Bills, which were considered “as good as gold.”
That proposition is in doubt now as our national debt grows and the U.S. dollar’s status as the reserve currency slowly declines. As a result, central banks are shifting some of their “extra” money from dollars into gold. This move started with the BRICS countries. Countries like China and Russia want to get out of the dollar so the U.S. government cannot sanction them and use the global banking system to control them and their money. However, the Russians don’t want Chinese currency, or vice versa; no one wants Indian rupees, and the Euro is shakier than the dollar, so they are buying gold instead of foreign currencies. Because gold has value everywhere.
When a few wealthy countries build their gold reserves, other countries will join in because they do not want to be left behind. The FOMO (fear of missing out) and the resulting constant demand for physical metal are also driving up the price of gold.
Inflation is Coming, Eventually
The dollar has been dropping for a couple of years, but from a historical perspective, it is still pretty strong. However, the $37 trillion national debt, which was only about $5 trillion at the turn of the century, is raising questions about the dollar’s stability. I think the second biggest reason gold is going up is excessive government debt. The debt is so high, it is becoming more obvious to everyone that the government will never be able to pay it off.
If the government took every single dollar it collected in taxes, fees, and tariffs and spent it all on the deficit, it would take five or six years to pay it down. And that assumes we don’t spend a dollar on anything else, from a single soldier’s salary to paying for a box of cereal on somebody’s EBT card. And we all know that will not happen.
So what will happen? inflation. Oh, we’ll try to spend less, but all the talk about cutting the deficit and saving trillions has already died down. It sounds good until someone wants to run for re-election and realizes cutting benefits won’t get them any votes.
That’s my warning: prepare for inflation. Not necessarily this year, but towards the end of the decade. That gives you time to take steps. Last week, I listed some warning signs that can tell you when the economy is in trouble. Be alert for these.
Positioning Yourself for Inflation
Here are some suggestions on how to prepare for inflation in the coming years:
- If you do not own a house or property, buy one before inflation ramps up because real estate usually holds its value in inflationary times. If the Fed drops its rate, we might see mortgages drop. I stress the “might” because there is only an indirect link between mortgage rates and the Fed rate.
- If you own a house and you can refinance it for a lower rate this fall or winter, jump on that and use a portion of your monthly savings to prep.
- If you have an adjustable-rate mortgage, convert it to a fixed rate when you can because the adjustments over the next few years are likely to eat you alive. And if you are buying or refinancing, stick with a fixed rate.
- If you don’t own gold or silver, start accumulating it, even if you buy only a few ounces of silver at a time. Yes, the price seems high, but it could go higher. If prices drop, then buy on the dips.
- Stock up on material goods that you consume but have a long shelf life.
Surviving Inflation
Inflation is often felt in food and energy prices first, two of the things we need most to survive in our modern society. While oil and gas are at or close to recent lows, and well down from the Bidenflation spike, inflation could send them back up to $5 a gallon or more.
For more on the side effects of food inflation, see Nine Meals from Anarchy. The food in our freezers and prepper pantry will provide a nice cushion non-preppers won’t have. That will allow us to shop selectively and take advantage of sales, something people with empty cupboards cannot do.
Electricity prices continue to climb while reliability suffers. If inflation hits, expect costs to rise even faster. In Recommendations for Advanced Preppers, I suggested buying a solar generator. Although I had intended it to keep your refrigerator running during a power outage, they can also be used strategically to help cut your electric bill, thereby killing two birds with one stone. The bigger your solar power system is, meaning the more power it can generate and store, the more you can reduce your power bill while also prepping for a serious grid-down event.
Unease
There is a sense of unease in the country today, exacerbated by the Charlie Kirk murder, that will give any serious prepper concerns. Prep for whatever you fear is most likely to strike, but don’t leave inflation off your list. It may not hit us soon, but it will hit us. It’s just a matter of when.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, accountant, economist, tax professional, lawyer or precious metals expert. I am simply a well-educated prepper relaying my personal beliefs established over more than 30 years of prepping and twice as much life experience. Do your own research and consider consulting a financial professional to assist you with your financial decisions.
