The Iran war is now two months old, and its primary impact on my life has been that gasoline now costs $1.10 more than it did on March 28.
We haven’t seen any sleeper cell attacks in the U.S., which I thought was one of the biggest potential threats. Just a couple of lone-wolf attacks likely inspired by social media, not by orders from Iran broadcast over a secret network.
There has been an increase in hacks and cyberattacks, but it hasn’t risen to a noticeable or uncontrollable level.
China hasn’t taken advantage of the situation to invade Taiwan. Both China and Russia seem to be keeping their respective heads down. Sure, they might support Iran, but it’s low-level support.
The U.S. GDP grew 2 percent in the first quarter, which was two-thirds over before the war began. In my March 16 post, I asked, Is Iran the Straw that Breaks the Economy’s Back? Six weeks later, I’d have to say no. The economy isn’t great, but neither is it terrible. We continue to muddle on. As I said on April 22, We’re Still at War, but the Economy Doesn’t Care.
The global economy is another story. The lack of oil and gas flowing through the Strait of Hormuz is hurting Europe, Asia, and Australia. We’re sitting pretty compared to many countries that lack a domestic source of oil. In fact, many Germans now wish the country had not shut down its nuclear power plants, calling it a “Serious strategic blunder.”
While oil prices continue to climb, surprisingly so does the stock market and Bitcoin. Gold and silver are floundering a bit, up one week and down the next, but this horizontal trading within a narrow range is pretty common if you look at them in the long term.
The Never Ending 14-Day Cease Fire
The dollar is also up, in part because the United States looks stronger than it did before. One could argue that is the Trump Effect, as economic weapons are now finishing the job kinetic ones started.
Trump’s cease-fire appears to be never-ending, but his blockade of Iran’s ports and the interdiction of Iranian ships seem to be bearing fruit. Will this be enough to end the war? Perhaps, if given enough time. I think it more likely that we will attack again when it best suits us. By that time, it will be a surprise. I expect Iran braces itself every weekend for an attack. The longer it goes without one, the less they will prepare. It’s human nature to expect the current status to continue, even though you know there is a chance it may not. Trump may be luring the Iranians into a sense of false security, or he may be waiting to strike until that moment when they know they can take out many of the hardliners.
Meanwhile, we have re-armed. I expect Israel, the UAE, and other countries have restocked, repaired, and enhanced their defensive systems, including anti-drone and missile interceptors.
By all reports, the blockade is crushing Iran’s economy. Their currency went from trading 42,000 Rial for one Dollar in April 2025 to 1.8 million per Dollar this week. I can’t even begin to calculate that rate of inflation!
There is a possibility that rising food prices, a gasoline shortage (yes, in Iran, really), increasing unemployment, and a government that may have to stop paying salaries will lead to protests and a revolt that could overthrow the Iranian government, or what is left of it. I’m not holding my breath.
Should we Still Prep?
Yes, even if the war is not a threat to us in the U.S., we should always be prepared. Maybe the war won’t have any negative effect. Heck, maybe it will turn out to be a net positive, but there’ are still plenty of other things that can go wrong. We’ve got a long, hot, dry summer ahead of us, which can mean forest fires, drought, an electricity shortage, and civil unrest. It’s also an election year, which means anger, vitriol, and—you guessed it—potential civil unrest.
The world may or may not be getting any more dangerous, but it sure doesn’t seem like it’s getting any safer. For me—and I hope for you—prepping is a lifestyle, not something we leap into when we feel threatened and then drop when we feel safe. Because like those Iranian leaders who think maybe it’s safe to come out of their bunkers, all it takes is one bad day.
Prepping Updates
The Quest for Firewood Continues
I continued to cut wood, and I am planning to split this pile on Friday. That’s two logs worth of rounds—a big one and a medium one. This is how much wood I can cut in a day without my back hurting and causing me to have to quit other activities for the rest of the week. It’s not the saw—which is not that heavy–it’s the bending over to cut logs that are on or only a few inches above the ground. I see why all those guys on YouTube lift the logs with an excavator or a grapple to lift the logs at least waist high. That’s much easier on your back.
My goal is to finish cutting and splitting this pile and start it drying so I don’t have to buy any more wood this year.
The good news is that the oiler problem the saw was experiencing is indeed fixed. The saw is cutting fine, although after chewing through all that hard maple, it needs to be sharpened again.
We’re Making Honey
I am checking the bees weekly now; doing so drives home how important it is to have a hive peak at the same time as the honey flow. Two weeks ago, I put supers on three hives in my outyard. I visited them a week ago, and there was very little honey in the super. Today, all three of them were making honey, but one of them was going gangbusters. When I pulled off the lid, I felt like the gold miner who yells “Eureka!” when he finds a big nugget.
That hive got two new supers. Another hive got one, and the third hive still has work to do in its current super. Why the disparity? It isn’t the location—they are within eight or ten feet of each other. It has to do with how many bees are in the hive. And the hive that didn’t get a new super? That is the one that swarmed. If it hadn’t swarmed, it probably would be running neck and neck with the high-production hive. Timing is everything.
I normally like to have two full large hive bodies of bees before I put on the honey supers, but the first split I made this year had filled up one large hive body and was ready for a second. Instead, I added a super to it. We’ll see how it produces with just one hive full of bees and brood. When I pull the supers for the spring harvest, I will add a second deep box and let it expand before supering it for the late summer flow. That will allow it to be large enough to overwinter well.
Gardens and Eggs
We are harvesting Bok choy from the garden, but with sub-freezing temperatures predicted this weekend, we are glad we haven’t planted anything else. One of our new fruit trees may have died in the last cold spell. We thought the freeze killed the buds, but it may be worse than that. We’re waiting to see if it comes back.
The wild strawberries are blooming, and the blackberries are showing tiny buds. We’ll see how they handle the cold. Since they are hardy native plants, I expect the majority will survive.
We lost another chicken and are down to 11 hens and a rooster. I am planning to start over with a new flock this summer. That means four or five months of no egg production.
AI isn’t as Good as they Say
I fed my post into Gemini and asked it to create an image. The laughable result is below. Maybe it thinks I’m an Iranian. I can assure you, I don’t live in a place like that, there are no fires in the distance, I’ve never put up a billboard, and I don’t have a name tag on my shirt! Not to mention the gas pump without only one big display, an axe that looks like it will fall off the truck, and a few other weird things.
This is why I am not worried about AI taking over the world.
