As I warned on June 15, the peace deal with Iran crumbled—if it ever truly existed—and we are effectively at war again. My gas tanks are topped off. My pantry is filled. Our garden is producing. We’ve done what we can to prepare, and I hope you used the lull to do so as well.
I can’t help thinking that this next phase of the war will be less flashy and more destructive than the first few months were. We aren’t hitting Tehran and killing mullahs; we’re destroying radar stations and missile launchers. We aren’t trying to make headlines; we’re trying to degrade their ability to make war. My guess is that the first phase of the war was an attempt to win politically—by convincing the country’s rulers they had no chance. This phase is different because we realize it isn’t up to the politicians; it’s up to the IRGC, and as long as they have missiles, they are going to fire them.
Besides, I think we killed all the leaders who could make a binding decision or hold the country together long enough to be considered rulers. All that is left now are various factions who can’t agree on anything, and the militants are gaining power while the elected politicians are losing it. The result will be an Iran that is worse off than it would have been. The populace will have no electric power, inflation will keep rising, and they will start to run out of food. But they will blame the United States, not the IRGC. In fact, I expect that is what the militants are counting on.
Fewer Headlines
Have you noticed how the resumption of war is garnering far less attention now than it did at its launch? It is as if people are already tired of it or don’t care. “Oh, that’s old news. Go back to that video showing the highlights of the Argentina game.” “No, no, I’d rather watch how Europeans react to Buc-ee’s and free refills.”
How easily distracted we, as a society, are. How weak this makes us, how easily led, or, as is more often the case, misled.
My iPhone played Californication by the Red Hot Chili Peppers this week, and the lyric, “Getting high on information” stuck with me. I mean, how else do you define the handheld devices that are filling our retinas, ears, and brains with a constant flow of useless pap? They are addictive devices, and if all you consume is useless pap, if that is what you were fed from infancy, then you don’t realize there is anything else out there. When you get your flavor high from Doritos, Cheetos, and Nerds Gummy Clusters, meat and potatoes will not break through your sugar buzz.
But post a video filled with AI slop about a package blowing up in a porch-pirate’s car, and people will watch for hours. “Who cares about the war—did you see how pissed she was when that pink bomb exploded in her front seat? Play it again.” Show a braless girl dancing, and her bouncing boobs will draw more eyeballs than a story about the Navy’s new ocean-going drones blowing up an Iranian submarine.
The Other War
Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine continues. Russia looks hard-pressed. It launched an invasion where it hoped to be welcomed but found itself stuck in trench warfare that resembled WWI. Now the war has evolved into a long-range duel with advanced technology that renders trenches, trucks, and tanks ineffective. Ukrainian drones, however, are proving to be very effective, not just at taking out troops, but at taking out oil storage facilities, refineries, tanker trucks, and ships on the Sea pf Azov.
Ukraine is fighting for its life, but Russia (the state) is fighting for Putin’s legacy. Putin may be fighting for his political future, but the average Russian doesn’t care about that. They just want food on the table, gas in their car, and the lights to work. Too many of them remember the collapse in the 1980s, and they don’t want to repeat it, but Putin seems to be dragging them inexorably closer with every inbound missile strike that hits a factory or knocks out more oil production.
There may be a lesson here for Trump.
For preppers, the lesson is that while there may not be an attack on the homeland, there could be some blowback in the supply chain. Take advantage of the fact that much of America doesn’t care and prep while they consume their pap, oblivious to what is going on around them outside that tiny screen.
