As much as I would prefer to talk about chickens, honey, food storage, or guns, it would be remiss of me not to at least occasionally address the wars in Europe and the Middle East, and the possibility of a future war in Asia, which could all roll up into World War III.
With the head of the CIA flying to Russia on Tuesday for a four-hour visit, the war in Europe jumps to the forefront of my mind, and therefore of this blog. The last time there was a quick trip like that, the former Director warned Russia that we knew of their plans to invade Ukraine and tried to discourage them from doing so. Five months later, Russia invaded Ukraine.
No one knows the purpose of this latest trip, but it is easy to speculate that we flew over there to warn them we knew of their plans to attack NATO and to warn them not to. Or, could it relate to the launch of the Russian Navy’s Khabarovsk submarine armed with nuclear torpedoes capable of wiping out a deep sea port. It will be interesting to see if the outcome of this visit differs. I think not, and I think Russia won’t wait five months to act.
This visit is what we call actionable intelligence. We don’t know what happened, but we know something did. Maybe that’s enough to wake up some folks and kick-start some preps. Because when the war has been going on for four years, it’s hard to stay constantly prepared. The war just becomes the current state; nothing to be alarmed about. Until something changes, and this may herald a change.
Off-Shore Wars are Easy to Ignore
When my daughter visited this past weekend to help process honey, she came down into the man cave/bunker while I was watching YouTube on recent attacks in Russia. She had no idea Ukraine had been sending long-range drones to target Russian oil infrastructure and blow up Wildberries warehouses. “I haven’t been paying any attention to it,” she said. She is an intelligent, gainfully employed thirty-something who was a conservative until she went off to college and was corrupted, but she isn’t monitoring the war. I suspect there are many more like her.
When it’s not your country getting bombed daily, it’s apparently easy to put the war on your mind’s back burner, especially when the media fans the flames on other “pressing” issues. For some, the idea of whether biological males should play on the Woman’s basketball team is more important than a war with Russia that could embroil NATO and the U.S. Another subset of young Americans would like to toss out the Constitution, get rid of the presidency, eliminate the Senate, shut down the Supreme Court, and let the people’s congress rule. As if that isn’t a recipe for disaster. (Thank goodness my daughter doesn’t fall into this group.)
But when you scrape away the stories about famous people dating other famous people, actresses overdosing, the latest list of NFL players retiring or getting injured during training camp, and the many other distractions, the wars are still there. You can ignore them, or get distracted and look away, but there’s still a war in Europe and the Middle East, and rather than getting better, it looks like they are getting worse. As preppers, we can only safely ignore wars when we are fully prepared for them.
Are you prepared to survive a war and its economic impact? Few of us are.
Russia and Ukraine
Russia has now been fighting Ukraine longer than it fought in World War II, and it has made less progress. While it may be debatable if they are losing on the ground, they are losing economically, and that can destroy a country more thoroughly than any conventional weapon. Ukraine is knocking out Russia’s oil and gas industry—a source of revenue as well as the gas and diesel that keeps the country running, the military moving, and the people from growing angry.
By taking half measures at the start, Russia failed to win the war when winning was possible, and now the tables are turning. Yes, they can hurt Ukraine, but by now Ukraine is used to it. When Ukraine turns around and strikes Russia, bombing its population centers and knocking out Wildberries (the Russian equivalent of Amazon), the Russian citizens who could ignore the war suddenly had it waved in their faces.
Ukraine has targeted more than 20 Wildberries facilities and destroyed seven of their ten largest warehouses, virtually halting deliveries to Russian citizens. Imagine the disruption Americans would face if Amazon ground to a halt. Life would change for most Americans, and that is happening in Russia. The disruption caused by attacks on Wildberries has not only affected individuals but also the banking system, the insurance industry, and many small businesses that sold products on Wildberries and saw their inventory go up in smoke.
Plus, the massive fires and the plume of smoke that can be seen for miles when a warehouse, a tank farm, or an oil loading facility goes up in smoke is a devastating reminder that all is not well within Russia. That can only last so long without fomenting unrest, the last thing Putin wants.
Striking Out
The great unknown is how Russia will react. Will they escalate, and if so, how and where? That seems more likely than admitting defeat. (Don’t miss this post on what happens if Russia escalates to de-escalate.)
A cornered animal is at its most dangerous, and Putin may feel cornered. And can you blame him? He may have painted himself into this corner, but that doesn’t make it any easier; if anything, it makes him want to break out more than ever. He wants to leave a legacy as the Russian leader who restored the glory of the USSR, not the leader who duplicated its collapse.
Russia has been testing NATO’s borders, shooting drones and the occasional missile into neighboring countries, threatening the British, and rattling its saber. The recent trip by the U.S. to deliver a personal message face-to-face may be the last opportunity to stop the expansion of the war, an expansion that will have an immediate impact in Europe but also repercussions around the world.
What a NATO War Means at Home
Use your imagination and think about what a war in Europe would mean for you. You may be physically safe and sound here in the United States, but what would happen to the economy, your job, your 401k balance, commerce, food availability, chemicals, consumer goods, etc. Here are just a few repercussions:
- Less fertilizer from Europe means less food grown in the U.S. and elsewhere. Food prices rise. Shortages increase. Stores have empty shelves or ration what you can purchase.
Preps: Make sure your food preps are well-stocked. Consider adding to them. Life is easier when you are no hungry. - The U.S. deficit hit $40 trillion last week. To fund a war in Europe, the U.S. will have to start the printing press, borrowing into existence more money. This will result in inflation—some now, more later. It could also drive up the cost of silver, gold, and base metals like copper and steel. At the same time, expect an ammo drought as every grain of gunpowder goes to the military.
Preps: Have cash on hand so you can take advantage of sales and opportunities to stock up. Recall what items saw the largest prices increases during the post-COVID inflation and stock up. For example, I just purchased 120 Keurig K-cups of the coffee my wife drinks because they were on sale. - Expect cyberwarfare at a level that exceeds a few water treatment plants in Minnesota. These attacks could target utilities, oil and gas pipelines, data centers and internet exchanges, banks, municipalities, etc. Your phone service could go out; your streaming services might die.
Preps: Be prepared to survive with none of the above for anywhere from a few days to a few weeks. Expect life to get a little rougher and prepare now. - When the military is called up and the National Guard deploys overseas, there is disruption at home. If you or anyone you love is enlisted, this could affect them. Some police officers are in the Guard or Reserves, meaning local agencies will lose personnel at a time when financial pressures drive up crime.
Preps: If you could deploy, start lining things up on the home front so you can be relatively worry-free when you are gone. If you are at home, identify and solidify your support network. Make contingency plans.
Other Wars
The war in Iran is not going away; it is just shifting to an economic battlefield, one where we try to see how much their citizens can take before they rise up and overthrow the government. Hopefully, it will happen before ours rise up and overthrow our government.
I think the U.S. could win the economic battle, but that doesn’t mean it will be quick or easy here at home. Fuel prices have been kept artificially low by tapping the strategic oil reserve, but it is running low. Gas lines and higher gas prices are felt just as much here as they are in Russia, and U.S. citizens will be just as unhappy. Plus, as diesel fuel prices increase, it drives up the price of just about anything in the U.S. that has to be delivered by truck, from groceries to appliances to your latest online shipment. That means even more inflationary pressure.
Expect the government and the Fed to resort to their old tricks so we feel less pain, but remember that these actions just kick the can down the road, deferring today’s pain down the road for another administration to deal with. Free money today means inflation tomorrow.
If you think supply chain issues will be bad with a war in Europe or from side effects of a prolonged conflict with Iran, just think about how bad it would get if we were at war with China.
World War III
Whether China will attack or embargo Taiwan to exert pressure on them to “reunify” with mainland China remains to be seen. So does the U.S. response. While many think the time might be ripe for China because the U.S. has used up so many of its missiles, what they fail to realize is that a war in the South China Sea will be a naval war. So far, we’ve fired very few Harpoon anti-ship missiles and just two torpedoes. Our naval reserves and our anti-ship missiles remain well-stocked.
If China attacks while NATO is at war with Russia, the U.S. would be spread dangerously thin, but we have non-NATO allies in the region. Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia should come to our aid because they could well be targeted by China as well.
But a naval war means yet another seafaring lane would be shut off, with an even greater impact on our daily lives than the loss of the Hormuz Strait. We would expect to see U.S. and Chinese naval ships become legitimate targets during a war between the two countries, but what about tankers inbound to China? And will China cut off the flow of consumer goods to the U.S., which will hurt us but also cause significant damage to Chinese businesses. (Just look at what happened when we imposed tariffs.)
What is a Prepper to Do?
In a word, prep.
Fall back on the basics and make sure you have food, water, and shelter. Be economically prepared for anything: job loss, shortages, rising gas prices, inflation, cyberattacks, utility outages, GPS failures, the possibility of war in space and the loss of satellite services, etc. Be prepared to be as self-sufficient as possible, but don’t let this drive you away from people. This is when you need strength in numbers and strong local relationships. When the world is at war, you need to be strong and resilient at home.
The visit by the CIA director to Moscow does not mean we are on the brink of global war, but it means something. We won’t know what until afterwards, when it is too late. All we can do is consider it a warning and take steps to prepare: First, for a war in Europe; second for a broader war; and third, for a war that involves all the major powers. None will be easy, but all will be easier if you are prepared.
