It took a televised argument in the Oval Office for European leaders to realize the term “America First” is not just a clever saying, but a policy that places the needs and interests of America before those of Europe.
Europe’s elected officials had somehow convinced themselves it meant “NATO first”, or “West before East.” Perhaps they thought the phrase was campaign rhetoric, not a change in policy. They grew so used to the American umbrella under which they sheltered since the end of World War II eighty years prior that they had forgotten umbrellas held by others can be folded up or taken away. They are now getting rained on, waking up to the realization that their world has changed and their world view must catch up.
In a few short minutes, President Zelensky became Ukraine’s version of Oliver Twist and was not only told he could not have more, but he was shown the door as fast as poor Oliver.
Zelensky, who was granted hundreds of billions of dollars by the Biden administration, should have taken what he was offered. A man used to asking for more and getting it, he didn’t realize the rules had changed. His aides knew Trump was different. His ambassador knew her president was blowing it. It was clear to everyone in the room, but President Zelensky somehow missed the memo and stepped in it. Then he ignored the first rule of holes and kept digging. His blunder cost Ukraine a deal that would have provided American security to enforce peace with Russia and money for rebuilding. Worse, his behavior towards his largest benefactor not only hurt his country, but his European cronies.
Different Views
Europe, already shocked and offended by Vice President JD Vance’s speech last week, is rallying behind Zelensky. They are putting on a good show, but don’t look behind the curtain. Despite their best efforts, Europe is not a single entity and while that can be a strength, it is a weakness when it comes to waging war. It is NATO that provides both the backbone and a foundation of Europe’s defense. On its own, Europe is like a dysfunctional family that comes together for a funeral or other crisis but quickly falls apart, arguing amongst itself. Laws against posting mean things on the Internet can’t fix that.
It is only natural they see things differently on the other side of the ocean, where Russia is a much more immediate threat. Unfortunately, they are not well positioned to do anything about it. Maybe this crisis will force the Europeans to ditch socialism and green politics and starting rebuilding their military might. Maybe, but more likely not.
Proxies versus Partners
This episode just has set the stage for all of Europe to be our proxy in the next war with Russia.
Europe and the Biden Administration were happy to use Ukraine as their proxy to whittle away at Russia, destroying their weapons and killing their soldiers, shooting down their planes and using up their ammunition. They used the fields of Ukraine as a test ground for weapons and tactics, and hopefully learned some lessons in return for the Ukrainian lives that were sacrificed. What they never considered is Ukraine might lose. After all, it had the backing of the United States.
In the next war with Russia, or an escalation of this one, all of Europe will be Trump’s proxy. Just as the U.S. waited more than two years to put boots on the ground during WWII, Zelensky’s actions have given the United States a reason to sit out the initial ground invasion and allow European men and women to die instead of Americans. Once things grind to a halt and Russia is weakened, the U.S. can ride in as a savior, using our military might to destroy a damaged Russia, saving Western Europe for the third time in 110 years.
In the meantime, Europe will have no choice but to arm itself, investing three percent or—as the Financial Post postulates—as much as seven percent of their GDP on military spending. Coincidently, this is what Trump has tried to get them to do for the better part of a decade.
And while Europe is busy building its armed forces, buying military hardware (much of it from the Americans, South Koreans and Israelis), the United States will turn its attention to China, which Trump perceives as the true threat to the United States’ global hegemony.
Europe Sinks to Third
As Europe is forced to look out for itself, the U.S. will be free to shift some of its men and materiel to the South Pacific region, where Japan, Australia, and the United States have formed a trilateral agreement to contain China. Add India, and you have the QUAD, a group of allies that conduct joint naval missions in the Pacific and have the expressed goal of restraining China.
If America is first, this region and its allies there are now second. In addition to Australia, Japan, and India, U.S. allies in the region include South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, New Zealand, Vietnam and other countries who resent China’s territorial claim over the many small islands in the South China Sea.
The U.S. will not entirely abandon Europe. Not only is the UK a staunch friend and France a slightly less-staunch ally, but we have good relationships with Poland, Finland and other countries. The U.S. will leave its combat equipment there and continue to station troops in Europe, but the next wave of more advanced combat equipment will go to Asia. The newest missiles, the hottest infantry vehicles, the new generation of landing craft, the best stealth fighters, and the sleekest bombers will be positioned to fight in the South Pacific, not Europe. Likewise, the most advanced munitions will be sold to allies in Asia and the Middle East before they are sold to Europeans. As we rebuild our supply of Patriot missiles, ATACMS, and other advanced munitions, they will not be sent to Europe if they are needed in Asia.
Let Europe Worry
Of course, there remains a strong possibility that the minerals deal with Ukraine deal will get rebuilt and the relationship repaired. Perhaps Zelensky will grovel in a manner that allows Trump to save face and demonstrate how magnanimous he can be. Alternately, Zelensky could step down, clearing the way for a new leader to sign the agreement with Trump and agree to a peace deal.
In the meantime, it will bo good for Europe worry for a few months. Let them see how the world looks without the protective U.S. umbrella shielding them. We need them to be more independent. The countries on the front lines need the rest of Europe to be more capable of fielding a force ready to fight.
If a peace agreement is reached, Europe should send peacekeepers to Ukraine; we want the Germans and others to look across the barbed wire and minefields and see angry Russian veterans staring back, fingering their weapons. It will show the Europeans how badly they need to improve their war-fighting forces. It will also remind this new generation that enemy tanks have rolled down their streets in the past. They must act now to prevent it from happening again.
