While President Trump is trying to end the war in Ukraine, the rest of Europe appears opposed to peace, going so far as to build their armies and threaten to station nuclear weapons closer to Russia.
If Russia invaded Ukraine to prevent it from joining NATO, which seems to be the case even if most NATO countries don’t want to admit it, then what will happen if France stations nuclear weapons in Poland and the Baltic countries? How will Russia react? Or will it over-react?
Think of it this way: how did we react when Russia positioned nuclear weapons in Cuba during the Cuban Missile Crisis? Can we blame Russia for acting similarly?
Of course, the U.S. already has nuclear weapons in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey. I guess that’s the equivalent of Russia positioning nukes in Venezuela instead of Cuba. Plus, these are not missiles, but bombs that require planes to deliver them, or small nukes that can be fired by an artillery piece. Still, some would argue a nuke is a nuke.
Last year, the U.S. announced it will position Tomahawk cruise missiles in Germany in 2026, but they will have conventional warheads (at least for now). Before the U.S. withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty in 2019, placing these U.S. weapons in Germany would have been prohibited. Why did the Biden Administration do it? And will the current administration stick with Biden’s plans? Time will tell.
An Aging Bully
Russia is a bit like the middle-school gang of bullies that terrorized their classmates but fell apart over the summer when members drifted off. Back in those glory days, it was the big bad Soviet Union; today they are simply Russia. Many of the old team members left the gang, while others joined the opposing team. When threatened, the bully lashes out, reminding people it still has some power. The result, as we are seeing, looks like escalation.
When Russia invaded Ukraine, potential future victims came to Ukraine’s aid. A few months after the invasion—possibly seeing a pattern as Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014—Sweden and Finland joined NATO. Russia’s move to keep NATO off its flanks failed, and it got the exact opposite of what it wanted. In response, Russia changed its nuclear posture, reminding people it is not to be trifled with. It is a gigantic leap, however, from a ground invasion to the use of nuclear weapons, and it increases the risk of a counterattack.
Fighting Back
Instead of backing down in the face of nuclear threats, other countries increased their support for Ukraine and a few took steps to strengthen their militaries. Poland, for example, is building up its military, strengthening its borders, hosting a U.S. anti-ballistic missile site, and said it “must seriously consider” French President Macron’s proposal to extend France’s nuclear umbrella to all of Europe. Russia considers the French Plan “extremely confrontational.”
Funny how the country that invaded its neighbor is suddenly averse to confrontation. But in Russia’s defense, they have been somewhat restrained in their response to NATO-aided Ukrainian attacks deep inside Russia. To assume you can attack another country and not get attacked back would be foolish, but that was very much the case during the first year after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Now that the U.S. is pulling back its support of Ukraine, at least for the moment, Europe seems to be stepping up. The EU has agreed to let counties borrow enough money to buy 800 billion to 1 trillion euros to expand their military and produce or buy new weapons. A good move, but three years too late. They should have acted in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine.
It is also a step towards a broader war in Europe.
Can we Prep for That?
The best way to prep for a conventional or nuclear war in Europe is to live somewhere else. New Zealand might be the best location, but the U.S. has that “big beautiful ocean” to provide a buffer from a European ground war. As I said a week ago, “All of Europe will be Trump’s proxy” if a war breaks out with Russia. Like the prior World Wars, we will sit much of it out and, with Trump as president, come in when it is most advantageous for us to do so.
Even if the U.S. does not put boots on the ground, a war in Europe would disrupt our way of life and the global order. Other conflicts might flare up while the world’s eyes are focused on Europe. Israel could attack Iran, or vice versa. China could use the opportunity to attack Taiwan, knowing the U.S. would be distracted and have fewer allies to help it. Of course, attacking Taiwan might act like Pearl Harbor did in 1941 and draw the U.S. into what will surely come to be known as World War III.
To prepare for such a scenario, you must be prepared for shortages, rationing, trade disruption, supply chain problems, inflation, and a recession followed by a recovery and a war boom. The young should expect to be drafted and those too old to deploy could find their job reoriented to focus on the war. Large manufacturers could be expected to produce weapons instead of cars, trucks, heavy equipment, and appliances.
All your preps will be useful, from the food storage to the preparations you have already made to survive inflation or a recession. Having a bug out location will also be useful if an enemy strikes the U.S.
Getting Ready
One prep specific to war would be to buy ammunition and reloading supplies right away. During previous engagements, there was very little ammo, powder and primers on the market because all the capacity was going to fulfill military contracts. Companies that produce guns for the civilian market might switch their lines over to produce military weapons, meaning there could be a shortage of guns in the civilian market.
If you own a German or other European car, stock up on critical parts you might need for repairs. Other European exports will drop off as well. If China gets involved in an adversarial fashion, expect not only the cessation of imports from China but ships carrying goods from Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and other Asian suppliers might become targets of opportunity.
Luxury items could also become scarce, and little everyday luxuries like chocolate and coffee would probably see their prices rise.
The Nuclear Option
If nuclear weapons get used anywhere other than in space or in a very limited way on the battlefield, then the above calculation changes. Here’s a primer on how to survive a nuclear attack. For a more in-depth review, check out parts one through three of this free report on surviving nuclear war and fallout.
