Were you surprised when headlines screamed Israel was “ending” its invasion of Gaza and pulling out? Well, don’t take the headlines at face value. Israel is pulling out some of its troops, not all. But accurate or not, the headlines create a positive spin for a country that could use some favorable media coverage.
The move also appears to be appeasing President Biden, which will win them some points in the White House and probably squash any talk of halting U.S. weapon shipments. I expect Egypt and some of the other Arab countries are also happy with the news.
In truth, I think Israel is pulling out those troops so they can rest and get resupplied in case they are needed to fight Hezbollah or to invade Lebanon. This is not the end of the war in the Middle East, it is a pause between campaigns.
It’s All About Optics
When Hamas fighters crossed the border in a nighttime raid, killed 1200 Israeli citizens, and kidnapped 250 more to use as hostages, the world was appalled. When Israel struck back, it received a good deal of support. The longer the war lasted and the more Gaza Strip residents were killed or forced to leave their homes, the more public opinion shifted away from Israel. This withdrawal will help reset that clock. If Iran or its proxies launch a huge raid on Israel, Israel will get the green light to respond.
I can’t tell you if withdrawing troops is a wise military move, but it is a wise public relations move. For much of society today, the optics are more important than the details. People want to feel good, and hearing that Israel is “leaving Gaza” is enough news for the portion of the public that glances at headlines without reading articles and counts on TikTok for their news. Once they feel good about Israel again, they can be outraged when Hezbollah unleashes a wave of missiles and Israeli women and children are killed.
The move also puts Iran in a tough spot. Instead of being seen as responding to the attack on their embassy, if they strike Israel now, they will be seen as the aggressor that interrupts the peace process.
Just a Pause
But mark my words: the war is not over. Unless Iran tucks its tail between its legs and slinks into the night, the war will reignite and will probably be worse. This news is no reason to celebrate or to let your guard down.
There is a reason people in Israel are panic buying, and it is because they know what is happening. They are stocking their bomb shelters and safe rooms in case they need to stay there for weeks.
Thoughts on the Eclipse
The eclipse has come and gone, and there was no catastrophe and no mass-casualty event. The power grid didn’t fail. No black hole swallowed us up thanks to CERN, and as far as I can tell, no prophesies were fulfilled.
If you were ever in doubt, it is events like the lead-up to the eclipse and the nonsense surrounding it that separates true preppers from those who seek to take advantage of others by hyping up a situation and blowing things out of proportion. Every day, the sun disappears for hours, and somehow we all manage to survive it just fine. (It’s called night time.)
None of us are right all the time, but keep a wary eye on those who seek to profit by inflating the fear and doubt that surrounds normal events. Beware of false prophets.
