June 9 Coronavirus Report: Economy in Recession

An empty New York subway and platform. Photo by Billy Williams on Unsplash
An empty New York subway and platform. Photo by Billy Williams on Unsplash

Thanks to the coronavirus, the U.S. economy is officially in a recession and globally we are in what the World bank describes as the worst economic collapse in 150 years.

The big question is whether this will last or will our bounce back be fast enough to lift the country out of a recession.  There is a great deal of pent up demand for personal services such as haircuts.  Real estate is also looking good, at least outside the cities.  New York City is outing as many as 400,000 construction workers back on the job while subways, buses and ferries will be running more frequently/

We should know more in a couple weeks, but we’re sticking with our March prediction that it will take three years before things are completely back to normal.

Coronavirus Numbers

After several days of new COVID-19 cases exceeding 20,000, the United States reported only 17,500 cases in the past 24 hours, less than 0.9 percent, bringing the total to 1,970,600 people.  Deaths were also lower, with only 478 reported.  New York’s latest numbers reflect only 39 deaths, the least since March 21.

As the death toll continues to drop at a faster rate than the caseload, one has to wonder if doctors in the UK and Italy who are reporting that the virus is weakening were right.  Or perhaps we’re simply detecting more asymptomatic case.

Speaking of asymptomatic cases, the World health Organization has reversed its prior statements and now says that the chances of an asymptomatic person spreading the virus are “very rare.”

Global Growth Continues

Globally, there were 112,000 new cases, bringing the total to 7.151 million, an increase of 1.6 percent.  Deaths increased 4,035 to 407,302.

Brazil continues to experience runaway growth, surpassing 700,000 cases, and has been reporting as an average in excess of 1,000 deaths per day over the past week, despite possible chicanery with the official numbers.