The media has revealed that U.S. intelligence helped sink the Russian missile Cruiser Moskva, the flag ship for Russia’s black sea fleet, and has helped the Ukrainians target Russian generals, of which at least 10 have died since the war started. This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who has been following the news. The U.S. and NATO support of Ukrainian forces with information and intelligence should also be well known to Russia, but trumpeting it in multiple stories carried by U.S. media sources could anger Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In the past couple weeks, the U.S. has said it wants to weaken Russia, Nancy Pelosi said the Ukraine will only be victorious when Russia is driven out of the country, and the Administration passed a $33 billion spending plan, much of which benefits Ukraine, and created a lend-lease program to provide them with additional heavy weapons.
Putin has a lot to be angry about. The question often ignored by the main stream media is if Putin will react, over-react, or continue to do nothing more than launch missiles in Ukraine. He has blustered that parties who interfere in the war will be held responsible. Perhaps we are all lucky that he has not yet done so.
Reasonable vs. Unreasonable
Any reasonable person might conclude that if you attack another country, there’s a good chance that neighboring countries will feel threatened and support the victim. I’m not sure Putin sees it that way or is what we would consider “reasonable.”
The surprising performance of Ukraine’s military and the sub-par performance of Russian personnel and equipment has put Russia in a position in which it never expected to be. Now it must fight to save face. Putin must find a way to spin this as a victory and avoid a coup, neither of which is getting any easier as more time passes.
The Russian military have soldiers who traded their fuel for Vodka, injure themselves or sabotage their vehicles to avoid fighting, and who showe dup in Ukraine without working communications or enough food and fuel. There are reports that Russia’s encrypted radios do not work and so both NATO and Ukrainian forces can pick up on their broadcasts, use direction finding equipment to triangulate on their position and attack. Russian forces are also reportedly using phones to communicate. Cell signals can also be used to identify enemy positions.
While Russians are dealing with flat tires and tanks that blow their turrets off when attacked, the Ukrainians have these handy new weapons that can turn a three-man squad into tank killers. They have drones that can destroy tanks and armored vehicles, provide intelligence, and drop grenades, plus new kamikaze drones designed to take out armor. Then there are those NATO drones and intelligence gathering aircraft that circle over Moldova and Poland, sucking up signal intelligence and feeding real-time data to the Ukrainians. If I was Putin, I’d be pissed by now.
May 9 is Victory Day
Russia celebrates Victory Day on May 9, commemorating it’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. The celebration includes parades and speeches. There are rumors Putin will use Victory Day to announce something big, possibly declaring war on NATO. Russia denies these rumors, but of course they also denied planning to invade Ukraine. There are no obvious troop movements to track this time, however, making a wide-ranging attack on other NATO countries less likely.
We also have to remember that Russians ranging from their president to their broadcasters have threatened a nuclear attack, going so far as to calculate how many second warning the UK would have after a launch before Russian nukes hit it. I think this is the biggest sudden threat. The every-day threat remains higher oil prices, food shortages, fertilizer shortages, threats to the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency status
Either way, we need to be aware of May 9 and keep attuned to the news. Anything announcements made that day will likely happen by the time most U.S. residents wake up in the morning. Stay tuned, folks. This ain’t over by a long shot and our problems are just beginning.