I often talk about the Sh*t hitting the fan and about living in a post-SHTF world, but I can’t help but think the amount of stuff hitting the fan is increasing as is the speed at which the fan is moving.
In other words, I think that when the sh*t hits the fan, it will be messier than many expect. That means the cleanup, or recovery, is going to take longer.
Economic Doom
There are plenty of physical threats, things that can go “Boom!” and blow up the world as we know it, but I think the greatest threat is the coming financial collapse. I see very little hope of avoiding it.
History has seen economies collapse before. It has also seen reserve currencies come and go. Countries have failed in the past. Multiple currencies have inflated themselves into worthlessness. But we have never seen a global collapse in which most or all of the major economies collapsed at the same time. And that is what is likely to happen because of the tight economic ties between most of the first-world countries.
My Predictions
Europe will fall apart first, possibly as soon as this winter, driven by cold weather, a lack of natural gas, high energy prices and an angry populace. This could see the end—or at least the splintering and the beginning of the end—of the European Union. At the very least, it will lead to resignations from top officials and new elections. It may result in attacks at parliaments and various government buildings that make January 6 look like a school play.
Europe’s collapse will catch the U.S. by surprise. our government will try to support Europe, sending more liquid natural gas overseas, but it will only hurt U.S. citizens and spread the contagion. As depression sets in and global sales drop, U.S.-based companies serving the international market will suffer. This will contribute to a stock market crash. At best, the United States will fall into a depression. The Biden Administration has showed that it is detached from economic reality and has no idea what it is doing, so “at best” is a long shot. More likely, our economy will wallow like a lost Alzheimer’s patient and fall into the crater left by Europe’s collapse, getting sucked into the vortex. The dollar may be stronger than the Euro, but that’s not saying much.
The only question is whether China will beat us into an economic collapse or follow closely on our tail. While the U.S. may be able to pull back from the brink, China will continue and get sucked under. If we hold on, China’s collapse could drag us down. It will certainly hurt financial markets.
Without Europe and the U.S., the growing manufacturing-driven economies of Asia will have no markets. They will slow down, sputter and grind to a halt. Africa, where the economy already sucks, will grow worse, but no one will notice because their attention will be elsewhere. The same thing will happen across much of the third world, but few will care. South America may be somewhat insulated from the broader collapse. Countries that have a great deal of natural resources and currencies supported by commodities will do better, although the sinking tide will lower all boats. This means Canada, Australia and Russia will suffer, but less than Europe and the U.S.
Bouncing Back
Were the U.S. to default on its debts, we still have what the country needs to bounce back. The crops, energy sources, natural resources, military might, and manpower are all there. These physical assets won’t go away in a collapse, although they may stop working or have questionable ownership. By leveraging these assets, the country could recover and, with no more deficits or debts, might eventually end up in better shape.
The problem will be the politics; the very people that should lead us out from the dark hole will refuse to change and continue to pursue the policies that put us there in the first place. The first rule of holes is, “When you find yourself in one, stop digging.” They won’t. As a result, the recovery will be a long time coming.
Our job as preppers is to survive the collapse and the recovery. To survive, we need to focus on ourselves and our prepper group. To recover, we need to broaden out into a slightly larger community. We need to take part in small, independent communities that work together for the benefit of all members without federal or state aid or supervision. Those communities need to provide security, food, and services to the community members and to facilitate both intra-community and inter-community trade. This will represent the first step in recovery. It will also make live more bearable for individual members.
Super SHTF
Maybe we need to add another S for “super” to SHTF. As the slippery slope steepens and the speed of our descent seems to increase, it will not only be harder to avoid a collapse, but our collapse will be worse than we expect. There will be no other countries to provide aid or help pull us up because most of our allies will be in similar straights.
This tells me to keep prepping. It is motivation to keep storing food, seeds, animal feed, and other supplies. Thinking about how bad things might be reminds me to continue to build our infrastructure and tighten our ties to the community.
Yes, times are tough and money is tighter, but I can continue to make small preps. A can or two of food here, a bag of dog food there. I encourage all of you to continue to prep and to top off your preps if you use them. Look for sales and stock up on things that are a good buy. We have to survive a sh#t storm.
