Thoughts on the Surprise War in Israel

Time to stockpile gasoline as oil prices will rise.
Time to stockpile gasoline as oil prices will rise due to war in the Middle East.

In the 82 years since Pearl Harbor, there has been speculation about whether President Roosevelt knew of the attack and let it happen because it was the only way to get the U.S. citizens to support the country’s involvement in WWII. Now, we must ask the same question about Israel.

With all the spy satellites, drones, electronic surveillance, human intelligence, and even warnings from Egypt, did Israel and the U.S. truly get caught by surprise? Did someone in Israel (or perhaps in the U.S.) want to have an over-the-top attack on Israeli citizens so that they would have an excuse to knock out Hamas and possibly Hezbollah?

There is no doubt this war will reshape the Middle East. How and to what extent remains an open question.

Iranian Involvement

Expect Israel to attack Iran in response to their reported involvement and support of Hamas. Israel may focus initially on local threats, but expect them to focus on Iran before too long. Politically speaking, they would get more support and less global condemnation if they attacked them sooner rather than later.

A key question is whether the U.S. will join Israel in a massive combined air attack or if Israel will go it alone. I don’t think Biden, or the puppets behind his throne, have the stones or the smarts to attack Iran. Biden spent most of Monday in hiding. They didn’t even say he was consulting with his cabinet or making plans, he just shuffled off to the basement.

This new war is already making the U.S. look weak. While the Wall Street Journal gives extensive details on meetings in which Iran provided support and “approved” the attack, the Biden Administration is playing dumb and claiming to have no knowledge of that. Are our intelligence agencies that bad? Or is no one in the White House reading their briefing books?

Going Nuclear

If the U.S. does not help Israel—and under Biden it may not—it increases the chance Israel will turn to the use of nuclear bombs, of which they supposedly have between 75 and 400. Israel has 50 F-35 stealth fighters which can carry nuclear bombs. They also have advanced missile capabilities, including some that could carry nuclear payloads. Used properly, they could eliminate the threat Iran poses and knock them back decades, perhaps longer. It would also ignite a firestorm of trouble and controversy, but Israel already has trouble and controversy. What’s a little more?

The use of nuclear weapons in the Middle East could have multiple repercussions in and outside the area. For example, if Israel uses nuclear weapons, it could encourage Russia to use tactical nucs in Ukraine or, in a worst-case scenario, in Poland or the Baltics. This would draw in NATO and result in a much larger war with even more death and misery. An attack on Muslims by Jews could also cause protests and unrest in Europe.

If nuclear weapons are not used, then I expect Russia will come to Iran’s assistance. A war between Israel and Iran will become the next proxy war, only this time the U.S. will be providing even more direct support than they do in Ukraine. It will be interesting to see what kind of support Russia can provide because they do not have much excess military capacity. Maybe China will come to Iran’s aid. They could use Iran as a testing ground for their weapon systems, much as we are using Ukraine as a proving ground for ours.

Another front for WWIII?

Speaking of China, a war in the Middle East plus the war in Ukraine could strain U.S. resources to where we are less able to support Taiwan. The U.S. needs to rapidly increase its production of war materials by several hundred percent.

How many more fronts do we need before we reach World War status? How many more participants do there have to be? And what are the odds that the next world war will use only conventional weapons?

The use of nuclear weapons in any part of the world is a trigger for our family and prepper friends to bug out and come here. What will you do if you hear one country has nuked another? This might be a good time to top off your food supplies, dust off your bug out plan, or reconsider those ideas on how to build a fallout shelter in your basement.

Higher Oil Prices

On Monday, I filled the generator’s onboard tank with the freshest of my stored gasoline. Then I emptied two of my oldest cans into my truck. I filled all three now-empty gas cans with no-ethyl gasoline and treated it with Stabil. Then I topped off my truck. Why? Because a conventional war with Iran will drive oil prices higher and a nuclear strike on Iran will send it sky high. And given the state of our strategic oil reserves, gthe government could claim every drop we produce resulting in raioning.

Tomorrow, I will top off my wife’s car. It’s always a good practice to keep your vehicle’s tank above the halfway mark, but now more than ever.

Prepper Lessons

This weekend’s attack on Israel shows it is still possible to plan and execute a multi-pronged coordinated attack that surprises the enemy. It also shows that attacking on a holiday, a practice that dates back centuries, still works. Those are both good lessons this country and preppers should note.

Another lesson is that civilians should always be armed and ready to defend themselves. Granted, young people at a music festival are unlikely to be armed, but those citizens in houses near the border should have been prepared to fend off attackers. You may have guns, but how many loaded magazines do you have? I expect a few dozen citizens, each with a rifle and a dozen loaded rifle magazines, could have done a great deal of good on the night of the attack. There is prepared, and there is ready. Why not be both?

I expect that like the U.S., many Israelis have gotten soft because of normalcy bias. They thought that because there has not been a war in Israel for 50 years, there would not be one in the next 50 years.

Now apply that to your situation: Just because that river hasn’t flooded in your lifetime doesn’t mean it won’t flood next year. Just because no one has broken not your house doesn’t mean they won’t do so next week. Just because food has always been available at the grocery store doesn’t mean it always will be. While the pharmacy hasn’t run out of your prescription yet, it doesn’t mean they won’t. On a national scale, just because there has not been another 9/11 in the U.S. doesn’t mean terrorists won’t attack us again. (Think open border.) Don’t get trapped by normalcy bias. Always plan for the worst.

Should we Worry?

The current state of affairs in Israel ratchets up the danger for the entire world. It is another line that separates the globe into two sides—us versus them, what we think of as the good guys against the bad guys. It brings the world closer to World War III. The war could let the nuclear genie out of the bag. It could embolden China. It has already driven up the price of oil with more to come. So should we worry? We should at least be aware of the possibilities and be prepared for them.

The world has always been a dangerous place, but that danger is now closer to the surface. Whether you call this “Israel’s Pearl Harbor” or “Israel’s 9/11”, remember that they both led to war. Don’t expect this war to be over quickly.