Dialing Back My Threat Level One Month Later

Danger sign
Is there danger ahead? How bad is it?

Israel has now invaded Gaza and no greater Middle Eastern war has broken out despite the threats and bold language by other countries in the region. Iran hasn’t bombed them. Turkey has staged an amphibious landing to support Hamas. Hezbollah hasn’t attacked. Sure, there are daily rocket attacks, but that’s business as usual.

The unanswered question is, why? A month after the Hamas incursion, and the war hasn’t spread.

Is it because the U.S. show of force and threats have been enough to scare the bad guys straight? Or is it because Antony Blinken is flitting around like an annoying insect, landing here and there? Is the velvet glove of diplomacy backed by the Iron fist of two aircraft carriers and a nuclear submarine working? It could even be because the Iranian clerics and other leaders throughout the Middle East are scared of their own populace and like the status quo. They can bluster, but they can’t act without the possibility of kicking off a revolution.

Does the threat of a broader war still exist? Of course. Are terrorist attacks in Europe and the U.S. still a possibility? Sure they are. But I feel like we have called their bluff. I feel like we are entering the grinding phase of an ongoing war instead of the dangerous phase of a broadening war. Unless Iran is biding their time to they can launch a surprise attack, I think we may have pre-empted a widespread war in the Middle East.

I predict media coverage will continue to lessen, and unless the unwashed public thinks there has been another atrocity, they will pay less and less attention to the war and more and more to the latest video game, celebrity gossip, or new strain of pot at their local dispensary.

Reduce your Threat Level

You can’t live in condition red for too long, just like the U.S. can’t stay at Defcon One forever. I’m dialing back my personal threat to Condition Yellow at home and Condition Orange only when I am traveling.

Three weeks ago, I wouldn’t have traveled far from home. I would today, but I would avoid large cities like Washington, New York, Atlanta, Chicago, Houston and Los Angeles. Of course, I would have avoided those cities, and many others like them, before all this happened.

The challenge when evaluating your threat level is determining if the threat is lower, or if it just appears that way because of the slower media coverage or because we are used to the higher level. I’m guessing it is some of both. War is becoming normalized.

A Wake Up Call

The Hamas invasion a month ago was certainly a wake-up call for Israel. It was a shake up for the Middle East, derailing talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia. I dare say it was a wake-up call for the U.S. military as well. I bet eyeballs were locked on radar screens and the pilot’s ready room on aircraft carriers was packed.

It was a wake-up call for preppers, too. It’s good for the prepper eco system to see sudden threats arise. We woke up one day to hear terrorists had invaded Israel and killed 1,400. What might we wake up and hear next time? Surprises happen, and while we cannot be prepared for every surprise, we can be prepared enough that our preps are useful whatever the disaster. Because we all know there will be another wake up call, we just don’t know when.

My concession to a higher level of personal security is to continue carrying a .40 caliber Glock with a 15-round magazine instead of a 9mm with a 10-round magazine. Doing so is not a big imposition on my lifestyle choices. It’s also a good idea, given the heavier clothing people wear in these colder months. Switching back to my older guns has driven home the point that I need to get some of my .40 caliber slides cut for optics. I miss my green dot.

I saw a Holosun 407 Reflex Sight with the 3 MOA dot on sale for $179. Tempting, but my November prepping budget already went to buy ammo. Damn! Should have kept my powder dry.