Brace for War in the Middle East

An Israeli flag
An Israeli flag

It looks like the Middle East is hurtling towards a broader war faster than ever after s recent missile attack in Syria that killed several Iranian generals, including the senior Iranian commander of the Quds Force in Syria and Lebanon and a top commander of the Revolutionary Guards. These are the most senior Iranian officers killed since the U.S. killed Qassem Soleimani while Donald Trump was president. Like that attack, this one has spawned protests across the Middle East.

While Israel has not admitted to making the missile strike on what they claim is a military building adjacent to the Iranian Embassy, neither are they denying it. And the dead men definitely caused Israel many problems, including supervising the smuggling of weapons from Iran to their proxies in Lebanon and elsewhere. The Israeli Air Force—oops, I mean “someone”—helped Israel solve a problem. The danger lies in possible repercussions.

Iran says the building that was hit is a part of the consulate and should have been off limits. They are also said to be planning revenge strikes. Observers think that at the very least Hezbollah will launch hundreds or thousands of missiles at Israel, overwhelming their Iron Dome system and leading to war between Hezbollah and Israel.

What this Means Here at Home

We have already seen oil prices climb to $85 per barrel and both gold and silver shoot upwards, with gold at the time of this writing over $2,285 and silver at $26.15, up more than a dollar (4 percent) since the weekend. These rapid changes are likely a result of the markets anticipating war in the Middle East and smart money looking for a safe haven.

Your first action should be to fill your car’s tank with fuel and to top off any empty gas cans. This won’t offer you much protection, but it could save you a few bucks if oil prices rise rapidly. Rising fuel prices will drive up other costs, just like we saw two years ago, so plan accordingly. Spend money now to buy necessities you will need later before the prices rises and their availability drops.

It’s hard to recommend buying gold and silver when gold is at an all-time high and silver is at its highest level in a decade, but the possibility exists that they will just keep climbing. Far better to have purchased gold when it was in the $1900s and silver when it was between $16 and $20 than to buy at elevated prices, but that’s your call. If you think it will keep going up, jump on the bandwagon. I’m not going to, but that’s because all my cash is going towards a solar power system.

Terrorist Threats

Terrorist threats are one thing we don’t see much about in the media, despite the FBI director testifying about the threat level. In November, after the war between Hamas and Israel was underway, Director Wray said, “Our most immediate concern is that individuals or small groups will draw twisted inspiration from the events in the Middle East to carry out attacks here at home. That includes homegrown violent extremists inspired by a foreign terrorist organization and domestic violent extremists targeting Jewish Americans or other faith communities, like Muslim Americans.” The threat remains.

Plus, if Iran goes to war with Israel, they will look for ways to attack the United States. They could also activate sleeper cells in the U.S.

Just remember, the best way to stay out of trouble is to avoid places where trouble starts. That means street corners at 2 a.m., biker bars, and large crowded areas that make good soft targets. (For example, a certain concert venue in Moscow.)

Because of my lifestyle, I am rarely, if ever, found in places that would be good for terrorist attacks. I stay out of large cities, I avoid crowded places, and I don’t fly commercial. Make similar smart choices and you can minimize your chance of being caught in a bombing, a mass shooting event, or a riot.

A Final Reminder to Buy Ammo

At the risk of sounding repetitive, I’ll touch upon the message of Saturday’s post: wars cause ammo shortages. If you think we will be at war or will be sending millions of rounds of rifle ammunition to Israel in the near future, stock up on ammunition. Think about how much ammo you would consume over the next two to three years and buy at least that much.

I look at my brass and lead as having an inherent value, much like silver. The latter may preserve your purchasing power, but the former are more likely to save your life.


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