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Ammo Costs Continue to Rise As Potential Shortage Builds

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magazine with ammo
A magazine for an AR-15 loaded with 5.56 ammo.

Gas prices are down, and my wallet and I are both happy, but ammo prices are rising. The good news is I buy gas every week or two, but I only buy ammo a couple of times a year.

I filled my truck’s tank for $3.35 a gallon. These days that will only buy seven 5.56 rounds or four in .300 blackout. If you use a fancy hunting cartridge or a large caliber, $3.35 might not even buy you one round. That makes it expensive to practice or sight in your rifle, but you have to do both.

Tracking Ammunition Prices

Before Obama was president, I could buy 1,000 rounds of 5.56 for $299. It shot up after he was elected, and after peaking much higher, it eventually settled in around $400 per thousand. Now, I see it at $500 for a thousand-round case, and that’s considered a sale price. We’re looking at 50 cents per 55-grain FMJ, or several times that for a high-performance round.

In December 2025, I bought 300 rounds of Winchester 200-grain Super Suppressed .300 blackout ammo from Palmetto State Armory for $13.99 a box, or 70 cents a round. Six months later, that same ammo from the same place is $16.99 a box, or 85 cents a round.

A month before, I bought subsonic .22LR for 21.99 for a box of 350 rounds, 6.2 cents per round. Today it is 15 cents a round, or more than $50 for a box of 350. That’s a whopping price increase. The CCI subsonic ammo is less, only 11 cents per round, but that’s still almost double what I paid a year-and-a-half ago.

9mm is also up, although not as much. Two years ago, I bought Winchester 115-grain FMJs for $10.49 for a box of 50. That’s 21 cents a round. Today that ammo is 40 cents a round. The cheapest 9mm I can find is $12.50 for a box of 50, and that is for brands I’ve never heard of. Blazer brass ammo, the cheapest brand I will buy, is about $15 a box, or 30 cents a round. If you want JHPs, you are could be paying more than $1 a round.

Stockpiling Ammo

This is where my stockpile of ammo saves me money. I still have cases of 5.56 that were purchased for $300 per thousand rounds. I have old Remington Thunderbolt and Yellow Jacket .22LR ammo that I bought for 2 to 3 cents per round. Not only does it still shoot, one of my 10/22s shoots it with great accuracy. I’d use my CCI MiniMags if I needed a .22 for serious work, but the old, cheap stuff is great for training.

22 caliber ammunition
This is some of the different ammo stored in our stockpile.

That’s another reason I have thousands of rounds of .22LR ammo, because when someone who has never learned to shoot has to do so after the SHTF, they can learn with the .22. With no recoil to speak of and limited muzzle blast, it is a great training round. Teach them marksmanship basics with a .22 rifle, graduate them to a .22 pistol, and then see if they can move up to a 5.56 rifle or a larger caliber pistol.

I have a .22LR conversion kit for the AR. It makes a valuable training device to teach someone gun handling with the AR platform without using an expensive 5.56 round. They can learn how the basics of how to chamber a round, use the safety, drop a magazine, reload, etc. all while using ammo you won’t miss much if the SHTF. And if it has already hit the fan, your training won’t be as loud.

You’ve Been Warned

I’ve warned you several times over the past year that ammo prices were rising. I hope you listened and added to your own stockpile. If not, reconsider. While prices have climbed, I expect they will continue to do so. This may not be the bottom, but it could still be a good buying opportunity. For example, in 2020, a thousand rounds of 5.56 had jumped to $865. That makes $500 seem cheap.

I’ve been buying ammo since the 1990s. I’ve seen the cycles, the fast ups and the slower downs. Each time ammo goes up, it reaches new highs. When it goes back down, it never quite retreats all the way.

Let’s also not forget what happened during the pandemic. So many people bought new guns and a few hundred rounds of ammo that ammo became hard to find. There are YouTube videos out there showing people scouring empty store shelves and finding themselves limited to buying two or three boxes at a time. Should this happen again, the way around this is to go into the store and buy the limit. Then send your wife in to buy the same amount. Or, go every day for several days in a row.

My friend Karl was trying to build up a supply of .22 Magnum during one of the ammo crises. He would go to the local Walmart every Tuesday because that is when the ammo came in. If they received .22 Magnum, he would buy his two boxes. Late that evening, after the shifts had changed, he would go back and buy more. Sometimes they had it, sometimes it was already sold out.

If that seems extreme, just keep in mind that this is what happens when demand outstrips supply. Better to sit on a few thousand rounds of your favorite caliber than to be waiting in the Walmart lot for the truck to arrive.

Major  2A Supreme Court Victory

If you missed it, on Thursday the Supreme Court handed down a 6-3 ruling that prevents Hawaii from prohibiting people with concealed carry licenses from carrying their guns in public places, like restaurants, grocery stores, and gas stations. This was a big win, as it will probably allow similar restrictions by a number of other liberal cities and states—like New York—to be overturned by lower courts. Combined with recent rulings that allow people who occasionally use marijuana to own guns, rulings at the state and district court level, and the elimination of some Biden-era rules at the BATFE, the Second Amendment is having a winning year.

This is why it is important to have conservative presidents who appoint conservative agency heads and justices, and a Republican majority in the Senate where they must be confirmed.

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The Pickled Prepper
Drawing on two decades of experience working with law enforcement and military personnel, Pete cuts through the noise to deliver hard truths about preparedness and survival in our fragile world. His belief in the preparedness lifestyle is so strong that he made the transition from the big city to an isolated mountainside homestead where he installed a solar power system, burns firewood for heat, and relies on a gravity-fed spring for water. Pete is an NRA Certified Firearms Instructor, a USPSA range officer, and a former competitive shooter. Through the Pickled Prepper, he provides actionable, intellectually honest intelligence and no-nonsense advice on self-reliance and homesteading, self-defense, and surviving whatever lies ahead.

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