New York Drives U.S. COVID-19 Growth


Of the new cases in the U.S., more than half were from New York where the governor made news on Friday by asking all non-essential business to close or have all employees work from home, effective Sunday.  The list of “essential” businesses includes health/medical, public safety, drug store, grocery store, and food related businesses.  But the list of non-essential business is shorter, and includes places how large groups of people would congregate, like casinos and movie theaters, but also smaller places like nail salons, hair dressers, and barbers.

In short, this is no Chinese-style lockdown and you need not fear being welded into your apartment or dragged off to the gulag if you don’t obey.  Hopefully, it will be enough to keep selfish people from engaging in behavior that endangers themselves and others.

One has to question the unfairness of this shut down to businesses in Upstate New York, Central New York and the western portions of the state where there are still plenty of counties that no or only one or two reported cases.  Linda’s Family Diner in East Pembroke in Genesee County (where there is only one reported case) has to shut down because New York City has thousands of cases?  That doesn’t seem very fair.

I’m sure the same could be said in California, Pennsylvania, and other states where the governors have decreed lockdowns and shutdowns and closed non-essential businesses.  There seem to be clusters of virus outbreaks in urban counties while rural ones suffer the penalties but have little or no contagion. Maybe the shutdowns and lockdowns will stop the spread and they will thank us. Or maybe not.

There are days when I look at this unfolding disaster with optimism and there are days when I am pessimistic.  Today, I find myself vacillating between the two. I’m afraid pessimism may be winning.

Apparently, I’m not the only one feeling this way. Here’s an article on the worst case and best case scenarios. Read it and decide where you stand.